President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has defended a wide-ranging drive against alleged corruption even as critics and opposition figures say the campaign is being used to silence dissent ahead of future elections.
The mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem İmamoğlu, a leading figure in the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), remains in a high-security prison in Silivri facing multiple corruption-related charges that he and his allies reject as politically motivated. More than 500 people linked to the CHP have been arrested since October, and prosecutors have accused İmamoğlu and others of bribery, rigging tenders, extortion and links to terrorism. The CHP denies the allegations and says the detentions aim to neutralise its strongest challengers ahead of the next presidential contest.
İmamoğlu’s arrest in March sparked some of the largest anti-government demonstrations Turkey has seen in years, with thousands, particularly young people, taking to the streets. Authorities banned the protests and deployed large numbers of riot police. Rights groups, opposition lawyers and legal analysts say arrests have extended beyond party officials to include journalists, lawyers, students and peaceful protesters.
Photographers covering the demonstrations were among those detained, and authorities charged roughly 800 people with participating in "unauthorised demonstrations" after early-morning raids that rounded up cerca 2,000 people. Insulting the president remains a criminal offence in Turkey; student protesters have been detained for slogans and placards, and some face multi-year prison terms if convicted.
Emma Sinclair-Webb, the Turkey director at Human Rights Watch, said the campaign showed a systematic effort by the government "to go after critics and to go after the opposition," and she warned that trust in the justice system was eroding as judges and prosecutors were perceived to be taking instructions from political authorities. The Turkish government rejects such characterisations and says that the judiciary operates independently and impartially.
Analysts point to a broader political context in which President Erdoğan has consolidated power over more than two decades in office. Soner Çağaptay, director of the Turkish Research Programme at the Washington Institute, described İmamoğlu as "a mortal threat to Erdoğan" because of his broad appeal across conservative and secular voters. Gonul Tol, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute who is from Turkey, said Erdoğan had taken "a huge step towards turning Turkey into a Russia-style autocracy," arguing that detentions and court cases were used to sideline potential rivals.
Turkey’s geopolitical position and relations with world leaders have complicated international responses to developments at home. Erdoğan has cultivated relationships with an array of global actors, including Russia and Ukraine, and has played a role in negotiations over grain exports and facilitated talks between Kyiv and Moscow. Analysts say those ties, as well as Turkey’s status as the only majority-Muslim member of NATO with a large army and strategic location between Europe and Asia, have made some Western leaders cautious about publicly confronting Ankara over its domestic record.
Berk Esen, a political scientist at Sabancı University in Istanbul, said Erdoğan projects himself as a dealmaker on the international stage and that this has tempered criticism from some foreign capitals. Observers also note the warming personal rapport between Erdoğan and former US President Donald Trump, a factor they say reduces the appetite in Washington for pressing human rights concerns. "Trump doesn't care [what Erdoğan does domestically], so he understands he can get away with it," Tol said, describing the current international environment as empowering regional leaders who face domestic criticism.
Domestic opinion remains divided. Erdoğan retains a loyal base that credits his Justice and Development Party (AKP) with modernising infrastructure, expanding public services and promoting Islamic values in the secular republic. At the same time, recent elections have been closely contested: Erdoğan won 52.18% of the vote in 2023, narrowly defeating the opposition candidate, and some polls cited before İmamoğlu’s detention suggested he could have been competitive in a presidential bid.
Onur İşıcı, a historian at Kadir Has University, said outright cancellation of elections was unlikely because Turks place strong cultural and political value on the sanctity of the ballot. Still, analysts say legal maneuvers, prosecutions and pressure on media and civil society make the electoral playing field increasingly uneven. "Turkish elections are generally free on the day, though far from fair beforehand," Esen said.
The government has defended its record in international fora. In a report to the United Nations Human Rights Council, Turkey's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the country continued "efforts at further compliance with international standards in law" and spares "no effort to create favourable conditions for civil society, including human rights defenders." Critics argue those assurances ring hollow for detainees and for those on trial in Silivri and other courthouses across the country.
Human rights organisations and opposition lawyers say the long-term effect of sustained prosecutions, media pressure and criminal cases against civic actors could be to hollow out democratic checks even while public elections continue. "There is a complete loss of trust in the justice system," Sinclair-Webb said. Some academics and analysts stop short of declaring Turkey a full autocracy, noting there is still space for dissent, but they warn that repeated restrictions and prosecutions have significantly narrowed that space.
As Erdoğan moves deeper into his third decade in power, the political struggle over the balance between security, governance and political pluralism is likely to shape Turkish politics in the lead-up to the next presidential vote. The CHP has continued to challenge the government in courts and on the streets while accusing authorities of weaponising legal processes. The government says it is enforcing the law and tackling corruption.
International actors face a dilemma: critics say they should do more to press for human rights and judicial independence, while others argue that Turkey’s strategic role in regional conflicts and NATO makes confrontation costly. For voters and activists inside Turkey, the immediate effects are tangible: prominent opposition figures detained, hundreds charged or jailed, and a political climate in which public protest and media coverage are subject to tighter controls. The outcome will shape not only Turkey’s domestic political future but also its role in regional diplomacy and relations with Europe and the United States.
We reached out to the presidential communications office for comment but did not receive a response.