England is bracing for a significant heatwave, with temperatures expected to peak at 36 degrees Celsius (96.8 degrees Fahrenheit) by Thursday. The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has issued amber heat health alerts for most of England, warning of a potential increase in deaths, particularly among the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. These alerts will remain active from Monday morning through Friday evening.
High pressure is dominating the weather system, bringing prolonged sunshine and allowing temperatures to build throughout the week. Southerly or southeasterly winds are expected to draw in hot air from Europe, contributing to the rising temperatures. Today, London is forecast to reach 26C, Manchester 28C, and Cardiff 29C. These figures are expected to climb to mid-30s Celsius in many areas, with a peak of 36C anticipated on Thursday. Even on Friday, temperatures are likely to remain above 30C before a slight drop to around 26C over the weekend.
Widespread Drought Conditions
The heatwave arrives as almost three-quarters of England is experiencing drought conditions. The Environment Agency (EA) reports that 71% of the country is under a "flash drought," a rapid onset drought caused by a combination of very low rainfall and high temperatures. This follows the driest July on record for the UK. Rainfall in July ranged from just 1% of the average in the Southeast to 26% in the Northwest. Some areas, including parts of Hampshire, the Isle of Wight, and West Sussex, have not seen rain for 59 days.
Farmers are reporting a difficult harvest and a shortage of feed for livestock, with potential implications for food price inflation later in the year. River and reservoir levels are critically low, with only 14% of rivers at normal levels and 22% exceptionally low. Reservoir levels are at 69%, significantly below the seasonal average.
Fire Risks and Water Scarcity
The dry conditions have exacerbated the risk of wildfires. Firefighters have been battling numerous blazes across the UK, including a significant incident in the New Forest National Park that spread to heathland. In one instance, families were forced to abandon their cars near Ringwood, Hampshire, due to fears that the vehicles could ignite in the flames.
Water companies have implemented hosepipe bans for millions of customers, affecting 27 million households. The National Drought Group has warned that all regions of the country are experiencing pressure on water resources, impacting agriculture, public water supplies, and the environment. The EA has noted that the current drought is the third in the past five years, following incidents in 2022 and 2025.
Government Response and Future Outlook
Downing Street has defended the government's response, emphasizing efforts to address both immediate needs and long-term resilience. This includes working with the National Drought Group and investing in infrastructure such as reservoirs. Water minister Emma Hardy stated that the government is facilitating the construction of more onsite irrigation reservoirs for farmers and working to reduce water leaks and build new reservoirs.
The forecast for the remainder of August and into September suggests a continued period of dry weather, with below-average rainfall anticipated. While some showers are possible, particularly in southern areas by Sunday, they are not expected to significantly alleviate the drought conditions. The UKHSA has issued amber alerts for the Midlands, Southeast, Northwest, and Southwest of England, with a yellow alert for the Northeast. The Met Office is considering issuing an extreme heat warning, an alert not seen in four years.