Support for Australia’s federal opposition has plunged to record lows under Liberal leader Sussan Ley, according to the latest Newspoll and other recent surveys, leaving the party and its coalition partner the Nationals with limited options ahead of the next federal election.
The Newspoll released this week put the Coalition’s primary vote at 27 percent, the lowest on record for the grouping, and showed a two-party-preferred result of 42–58 percent in favour of the incumbent Labor government. A separate Resolve poll reported similar weakness for the opposition.
The Newspoll result represents a sharp decline from the May election, when then-opposition leader Peter Dutton registered a Liberal primary vote of 31.8 percent. Ley’s personal ratings in the polls are also weak: her net satisfaction rating sits at minus 17, with 49 percent of respondents expressing dissatisfaction and 32 percent expressing satisfaction.
The Coalition currently holds 43 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives, meaning the party faces a substantial rebuild if the polling translates into electoral outcomes. There is no looming election before the next scheduled contest in at least two years, but the current numbers increase the likelihood of leadership pressure and intra-party debate over strategy and personnel.
Party figures and commentators have discussed a range of possible responses within the Liberal Party, including leadership challenges and different tactical alignments. Angus Taylor, who narrowly lost a leadership ballot following the May election, is seen by some as a potential contender, while figures on the party’s conservative and moderate wings such as Andrew Hastie and Tim Wilson are cited as possible components of a combined leadership team. Former treasurer Josh Frydenberg, who lost his seat at the last election and is currently outside Parliament, is also named by associates as a potential unifying figure should he choose to pursue a return to politics.
Analysts caution that generational or cross-factional leadership arrangements carry risks. Political historians note past examples where interim combinations of talent did not endure; a frequently cited case is the mid-1990s reshuffle that preceded John Howard’s elevation to Liberal leader ahead of the 1996 election.
The party’s internal instability has been compounded by public disputes involving former senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price. Ley moved Price from the frontbench after remarks about immigration, and Price, now on the backbench, has signalled she will campaign on positions that could diverge from broader Liberal policy on issues including climate and migration. Those tensions have prompted questions about the Coalition’s coherence and message discipline.
Labor, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, has taken note of the opposition’s difficulties. Polls show a Labour primary vote of about 36 percent, with minor parties making gains: the Greens at 13 percent, One Nation at 10 percent and other parties — including independent and so-called "teal" candidates — accounting for roughly 14 percent. Polling also indicates significant voter dissatisfaction with the government: roughly half of respondents expressed dissatisfaction with the prime minister, underscoring volatility in public sentiment.
Political strategists say the current landscape presents an opportunity and a risk for both major parties. For Labor, a weak opposition could allow the government latitude to pursue reform agendas on taxation, federation arrangements and other long-term policy priorities, though internal party pressures and public dissatisfaction create limits. For the Coalition, falling primary support, the erosion of moderate voters in inner-city seats to independents, and the rise of minor parties on both left and right complicate efforts to rebuild a broad electoral coalition.
Party officials and MPs have not announced formal leadership challenges. The Liberal Party’s next formal opportunities for contestation will depend on internal rules and the calculations of potential challengers, who must weigh the parliamentary numbers, factional support and public appetite for change.
The recent polling round follows a string of electoral and intra-party setbacks for the Coalition, and it is likely to intensify discussions about candidate selection, policy direction and the mechanics of cooperation with the Nationals. How those debates proceed could shape the opposition’s prospects at the next election and the broader trajectory of Australian politics as voters respond to shifting party alignments and policy proposals.
For now, the polls present a clear immediate hurdle for Ley and her colleagues: rebuilding primary support, restoring public confidence in the opposition’s readiness to govern and managing internal divisions that have been exposed in the aftermath of the election and subsequent controversies.