Brazil on Friday prepared for potential new U.S. sanctions after a Supreme Court panel convicted former President Jair Bolsonaro of attempting to overturn the country’s 2022 election, drawing sharp public criticism from leaders of the U.S. administration and promises of a response from Brasília.
The conviction, handed down Thursday, prompted President Donald Trump to say he was “very unhappy” with the ruling, and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote on his X account that the U.S. government would “respond accordingly to this witch hunt.” Brazil’s Foreign Ministry called Rubio’s comments an inappropriate threat, affirmed the independence of the judiciary and said the country would not be intimidated.
Prosecutors said the panel found evidence of a plot by Bolsonaro to remain in power after his October 2022 election defeat to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, citing years of efforts by the former president to cast doubt on the country’s voting system, discussions with top aides about an emergency decree to suspend the election result and the violent storming of the capital following Lula’s inauguration. Bolsonaro’s defense argued the case was invalid and that, even if the record showed he discussed such a decree, he never issued one and ordered a transition to his elected successor.
Brazil’s government, led by President Lula, rejected outside interference. In an interview with local TV Band, Lula called any U.S. threat to sanction Brazil an arrogant denial of the country’s sovereignty and said, "A president of one country cannot interfere in the sovereign decisions of another country. If he chooses to take further action, that’s his problem. We will respond as measures are taken." The Foreign Ministry said the justice system had accorded Bolsonaro due process.
Sen. Rogério Carvalho, the government leader in the Senate, told The Associated Press that Brasília had anticipated some form of retaliation and had contingency plans to protect Brazilian businesses. "The government already has a plan to support affected companies and mitigate losses from the tariffs. Brazil is aggressively seeking new markets to make up for a potential drop in exports to the United States," he said.
The dispute follows a series of U.S. measures and threats earlier this year. In July, Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian imported goods and explicitly linked the import tax to Bolsonaro’s legal fate. Weeks later, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions under the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act on Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who presided over the case. Magnitsky sanctions are typically used against individuals accused of human rights abuses.
Analysts and diplomats are watching for whether the U.S. will extend Magnitsky measures to the other justices involved in the conviction or to their families. Christopher Garman of Eurasia Group said Washington is likely to consider such steps and that it is also monitoring Brazil’s energy ties, including purchases of Russian diesel, as another possible avenue for trade pressure, though he cautioned that further tariffs were not imminent.
Brazilian officials have signaled they will contest any punitive measures through diplomatic channels and through steps to cushion economic effects. The government’s stated plan to diversify export markets aims to blunt the impact of higher U.S. tariffs on Brazilian producers. For now, the immediate fallout depends on decisions to be taken in Washington and on how Brasília responds to any concrete measures.
The case underscores tensions between judicial independence and international political pressure as Brazil seeks to defend the autonomy of its courts while managing the economic and diplomatic ramifications of a high-profile conviction involving a former head of state.