Residents in Victoria, New South Wales, and southwest Queensland are advised to prepare for substantial rainfall expected over the next week. Two large rainbands are predicted to move across the southern half of the country and along the east coast.
A band of rain currently over Western Australia is forecast to move eastward and intensify by Monday, bringing approximately 40-80mm of precipitation. The Murray-Darling Basin is anticipated to experience the heaviest rainfall, with accumulated totals of 50-100mm over the next seven days. This region will be affected by the first rainband on Monday, followed by a second between Wednesday and Friday.
The Bureau of Meteorology had recently indicated forecasts for a strong El Niño pattern, which typically brings drier conditions to central and eastern Australia during winter and spring. However, this current heavy rainfall event is attributed to a different climate driver: the Southern Annular Mode (SAM).
SAM refers to the north-south movement of strong westerly winds encircling Antarctica. Shifts in these winds can influence rainfall, temperatures, and storm systems across the Southern Hemisphere. The SAM is currently at its highest level since May 2023, drawing moisture towards Australia and promoting rainfall, according to Weatherzone.
Detailed forecasts for major cities include:
Melbourne: Expecting cloudy conditions with a high chance of showers, particularly in the afternoon and evening on Monday, with temperatures ranging from a minimum of 9°C to a maximum of 17°C. Tuesday and Wednesday will also see very high chances of showers.
Sydney: Will experience partly cloudy conditions with medium chances of showers on Monday, with a high chance of showers later in the day on Wednesday. Temperatures will range from a minimum of 11°C to a maximum of 23°C through the week.
Brisbane: Forecasted to have partly cloudy skies with medium chances of showers on Sunday and Monday, and slight chances later in the week, with temperatures between 12°C and 25°C.
Adelaide: Anticipates cloudy weather with very high chances of showers, especially on Monday and Wednesday. Winds are expected to be strong, reaching up to 35 km/h on Wednesday, with temperatures from 10°C to 17°C.
Perth: Will see very high chances of showers throughout the week, with a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday. Temperatures will range from a minimum of 9°C to a maximum of 18°C.
Canberra: Facing cloudy conditions with very high chances of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will be between 4°C and 15°C.
Hobart: Expects partly cloudy conditions with high chances of showers, particularly on Tuesday and Thursday. Minimum temperatures will be around 3°C to 9°C, with maximums reaching 16°C.
Darwin: Will experience medium chances of showers in the mornings with mostly sunny afternoons, with temperatures ranging from 21°C to 31°C.