An analyst who has tracked Islamist militant groups for decades warned that al Qaeda remains the world’s most dangerous terrorist organization 24 years after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks that killed 2,977 people.
Bill Roggio, senior editor of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Long War Journal, told Fox News Digital that the network’s global organization is intact, its reach has grown across the Middle East and Africa, and it benefits from safe havens and state support.
"The most dangerous terrorist group 24 years after 9/11 remains al Qaeda," Roggio said. He said the group operates training camps in at least 13 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces and that its footprint has expanded in other countries where it can recruit, fundraise and plan attacks.
Roggio said al Qaeda or organizations linked to it control significant territory in parts of Somalia, where the affiliate al-Shabab holds sway, and that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham — which Roggio described as a "so‑called former affiliate" whose links he believes may not have been fully severed — now exerts major influence in parts of Syria. "President [Donald] Trump even welcomed the takeover, the ouster of Bashar Al Assad. This was a mistake, in my estimation," Roggio said.
Roggio identified the proliferation of safe havens as his chief concern. "When terrorist groups have the time, the space and the security to plot, to execute, to recruit, to raise funds, they can conduct an attack like 9/11 and they have that in multiple places now," he said. He cited Afghanistan, Iranian sanctuary for some groups, permissive conditions in parts of Iraq, and areas of Somalia as examples.
He warned that state sponsorship and the spread of advanced weaponry have raised the threat level. Iran’s role in arming and backing groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis has increased their access to more sophisticated systems, Roggio said. He also noted the democratization of technologies — from commercially available drones to artificial intelligence tools — that can be repurposed by militants.
Roggio emphasized that terrorist operations do not necessarily require state-of-the-art arms. "Nobody thought that box cutters and some training on airlines would lead to 9/11 and yet it happened," he said, citing the low-technology methods that produced high-casualty outcomes in the past.
Beyond operational concerns, Roggio pointed to a shift in public attitudes that he said has benefited jihadist groups. He cited increased sympathy for Hamas following the Oct. 7, 2023, attack and a rise in antisemitic sentiment and decreased support for Israel as indicators that popular backing for extremist causes is growing in some quarters.
"To me, these are indications that we have lost the war on terror," Roggio said, adding that military action alone cannot counter the threat. He argued for efforts to remove state sponsorship for militant groups and to counter radical ideology through nonmilitary measures. "We defeated Nazi Germany. It's something that can be done. We had the will to do it," he said, urging renewed commitment to those goals.
Roggio’s comments reflect the assessments of a longtime analyst who monitors jihadist groups, but they also underscore broader debates among U.S. and allied officials about how best to respond to a violent extremist landscape that has shifted in geography and character since 2001. His remarks were made to Fox News Digital and published by the outlet.
While other organizations such as the Islamic State and Hamas have attracted global attention for brutal attacks in recent years, Roggio argued that al Qaeda’s enduring transnational networks, sanctuaries and affiliate groups make it the most enduring strategic threat. He called for a policy response that addresses sanctuary zones, state sponsors and the ideological appeal that enables recruitment and popular support.