Zohran Mamdani holds a commanding 21-point lead over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the New York City mayoral contest, according to a Marist University Institute for Public Opinion poll released Tuesday.
In a four-way ballot test of likely voters, 45% said they would back Mamdani, compared with 24% for Cuomo, 17% for Republican Curtis Sliwa and 9% for incumbent Mayor Eric Adams. Five percent of respondents were undecided. The survey of 885 likely voters was conducted Sept. 8–11 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The poll was completed before Gov. Kathy Hochul announced an endorsement for Mamdani.
The Marist poll shows Mamdani drawing significant support from younger and liberal voters. Among voters under 45, 62% backed Mamdani and 14% backed Cuomo. Among those 45 and older, preferences were more divided: 33% for Mamdani, 30% for Cuomo, 21% for Sliwa and 8% for Adams. Very liberal voters favored Mamdani by an overwhelming margin (86%), and 65% of self-identified liberal voters also supported him. Moderates favored Cuomo 35% to Mamdani’s 31%, while Sliwa captured 42% of conservative voters.
Mamdani’s advantage extends across racial and ethnic groups in the survey. Nonwhite voters favored Mamdani 51% to 22% for Cuomo; among Black likely voters, 47% backed Mamdani and 26% supported Cuomo. Mamdani led among Latino voters, 52% to Cuomo’s 21%, and also led among white voters, 39% to 26% for Cuomo. Jewish voters were split evenly, 35% for Mamdani and 35% for Cuomo.
The poll included a series of hypothetical matchups. If Adams were to exit the race, Mamdani’s lead over Cuomo narrowed to 16 points, with Mamdani at 46% and Cuomo at 30%; Sliwa would have 18% in that scenario. In a two-way head-to-head between Mamdani and Cuomo, Mamdani led by 10 points, 49% to 39%, with 12% choosing another candidate or undecided.
Most respondents expected Mamdani to win: 63% of likely voters predicted he will be elected mayor. Marist’s director, Lee Miringoff, said in commentary accompanying the poll that "Mamdani is running up the score" and that "it's getting late early," noting Mamdani’s strength among younger and liberal constituencies.
The survey also measured favorability. Fifty-two percent of likely voters had a favorable impression of Mamdani and 40% an unfavorable one. Cuomo’s favorability trailed, 39% favorable and 59% unfavorable. Adams registered a 68% unfavorable rating, while 51% of respondents held an unfavorable view of Sliwa.
Cuomo has targeted Mamdani’s positions on Israel and the boycott movement during the campaign, while Sliwa has resisted calls to leave the race despite public appeals from former President Donald Trump for a single Republican-backed challenge. The Marist poll reflects results from a fractured four-person field in which Cuomo and Adams are also running on independent ballot lines.
Miringoff suggested that Cuomo could try to break into Mamdani’s support among younger and liberal voters by emphasizing progressive accomplishments from his tenure as governor. He added that debates closer to the Nov. 4 election could provide opportunities for rivals to sway voters as attention on the contest increases.
The Marist poll collected responses through live phone interviews, text messages and online panels. The results align with other recent polls showing Mamdani with a double-digit lead in a split field, although margins could shift as endorsements, campaign events and debates unfold in the weeks before Election Day.