Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has alerted airlines, insurers, and operators using Russian airspace and airports that the skies over Russia are becoming increasingly dangerous due to escalating Ukrainian drone operations. Zelensky stated in his nightly video address that "the Russian sky is becoming completely dangerous," and that "the war started by Russia is closing its skies."
"There will simply be drones in Russia's skies on a scale that has to be taken into account," Zelensky said, directing his warning particularly to carriers still operating flights to Russian airports, including major hubs like St. Petersburg and Moscow. He emphasized that Ukraine does not target civilian aviation but is responding to Russia's ongoing invasion.
Russian President Vladimir Putin responded to Zelensky's remarks by calling them a "declaration of state terrorism." He vowed that Russia would continue its own intensifying attacks on Ukraine, stating that negotiations were not possible with "terrorists." Putin acknowledged that Ukrainian strikes had damaged infrastructure within Russia, though he claimed only a small percentage of oil refineries required repair.
Most Western commercial airlines have avoided flying over Russia since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. However, carriers from countries like China, Turkey, and Gulf states continue to utilize Russian airspace for routes between Asia and Europe, citing time and fuel savings. Ukraine itself closed its airspace to civilian aircraft at the outset of the war.
Reports from aviation risk advisory firm Osprey Flight Solutions indicate that while most Ukrainian drone and missile strikes are likely to occur within approximately 186 miles of the border, daily attacks deeper inside Russia are expected to persist throughout the year. The firm also noted a realistic possibility of increased frequency of strikes deep within Russian territory in the short term, with a risk of miscalculation and misidentification.
This escalation in aerial operations by Ukraine comes as Russia continues its offensive within Ukraine. On Monday, heavy strikes reportedly killed 12 people, and the Russian military has stated its readiness to carry out "massive" strikes on Ukrainian power stations. This exchange highlights the ongoing conflict and its expanding reach into Russian territory.
Historically, the UN aviation agency has determined Russia responsible for the 2014 downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine, an incident that killed all 298 people aboard. The Kremlin has consistently denied responsibility for that event. In a separate incident last year, Putin reportedly apologized to Azerbaijan's president for the downing of a commercial airliner in Russian airspace that killed 38 people, attributing it to Russian air defense systems repelling Ukrainian drones at the time.