Zambia is holding a general election on Thursday, with incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema vying for a second five-year term. His administration has focused on economic recovery, including restructuring over $12 billion in sovereign debt after the country defaulted in 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
Hichilema, a former financial services executive and cattle rancher, was elected in 2021 after losing five previous presidential bids. His economic plan includes a goal to significantly increase copper production, a critical mineral for new technologies, aiming to triple output to 3 million metric tons annually by 2031. Such a rise could position Zambia as a leading global producer, potentially surpassing the United States and China.
Despite the macroeconomic stabilization, including reduced inflation and a strengthened Kwacha currency, many Zambians report that the benefits have not trickled down, with high food and energy costs remaining a concern. Zambian economist Trevor Hambayi noted that while Hichilema's administration has had sufficient time to implement its economic agenda, its effects have yet to be widely felt by the populace.
During campaigning, Hichilema pledged to improve infrastructure and create jobs, stating his commitment to lowering the cost of living. However, critics have also raised concerns about a perceived tightening of dissent under his leadership.
The Tonse Alliance, an opposition grouping, has accused Hichilema's government of politically motivated actions, including a recent raid on its offices that resulted in the seizure of vehicles and communication equipment.
Hichilema's main challenger is expected to be Brian Mundubile, the leader of the Tonse Alliance, who emerged in January after internal disputes within the opposition. The election will also determine the composition of Parliament and local government councils, with approximately 8 million voters registered.
Zambia's electoral system requires a candidate to secure an outright majority, more than 50% of the vote, to win the presidency in the first round. Failure to do so necessitates a runoff election.
Past political rivalries continue to cast a shadow, notably Hichilema's contentious relationship with his predecessor, the late former President Edgar Lungu. Hichilema was imprisoned on treason charges in 2017 while Lungu was president, and Lungu later claimed to have been under house arrest during Hichilema's first term. A dispute over Lungu's burial, which involved Hichilema's government and Lungu's family, reached South Africa's Supreme Court of Appeal, with the court ruling in favor of the family.
China is a significant foreign investor in Zambia, particularly in its copper and cobalt resources. These critical minerals have also attracted interest from the United States, although Zambia has previously accused the U.S. of linking access to these minerals with a health aid deal, an accusation the U.S. has denied.