Young men in the United States are leaving the labor force in significant numbers, a trend that experts suggest could be intensified by the growing influence of artificial intelligence. While the overall US unemployment rate has fallen to 4.1%, the labor force itself has contracted, reaching its lowest point since the pandemic.
Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reveals a stark decline in labor force participation among men aged 16 to 24. In July, this rate stood at 56.1%, a decrease of nearly 13 percentage points from 69% in 2000. Concurrently, the proportion of young, unemployed men who are not actively seeking work has doubled since the 1990s to 8%, according to Ben Smith, head of research at the American Institute for Boys and Men.
This growing number of young men not engaged in education, employment, or training—often referred to as the NEET rate—has risen to 12% for this demographic, up from 10% in the 1990s. While the NEET rate for young women is similar, it represents a sharp decrease over the same period.
Economists and social advocates are increasingly concerned about the reasons behind this withdrawal from the workforce. Artificial intelligence has been linked to a substantial number of layoff announcements, and while some technology leaders predict new job creation, the technology is widely expected to disrupt entry-level positions in sectors like tech, finance, and manufacturing. Smith warned that occupations historically held by men may be particularly vulnerable to displacement by AI.
Maria Flynn, chief executive of nonprofit Jobs for the Future, noted that entry-level hiring has slowed in retail, factories, and various white-collar professions that previously served as common entry points for young men. "The longer the individuals sits out of the labor market, particularly early in their career, the harder it’s going to be for them to build the skills and the network and the work experience that really shape earnings in future decades," Flynn stated.
In contrast to the trends for young men, labor force participation has increased for those aged 65 and over, and men aged 55 and over have seen a slight increase. Women aged 16 to 24 have also experienced a decline in participation, but to a lesser extent than young men. Women now hold slightly more jobs than men in the U.S. for the third time in history, a gap that is expected to widen.
Some young men are reportedly reducing paid work hours to focus on childcare and household duties. However, research from the National Bureau of Economic Research suggests that non-working men spend approximately 70% of their free time playing video games, with only 3% of NEET men citing childcare as a reason for not working, compared to a fifth of NEET women.
The job market is seeing growth primarily in sectors like healthcare, which is largely dominated by women. This could partially explain the widening gap in labor market performance between young men and women. Experts suggest that fields like home health care aides, a growing industry, could offer employment opportunities for men.
Enrollment and completion rates for men in higher education have also declined. In 2021, men constituted 42% of total undergraduate enrollment, and their share in doctoral degrees has dropped significantly since 1970. Furthermore, the value of college degrees appears to be diminishing for young men, as the unemployment rate for college-educated young men is approaching that of men without bachelor's degrees.
While the overall labor force participation rates for both young men and women are lower than in 2000, the decline has been more pronounced for young men. Some younger men express a sense of discouragement, with concerns about the long-term effort required to achieve financial stability and the perceived high cost of living. This sentiment may contribute to their disengagement from the workforce, with some young men turning to skilled trades for more stable career paths.