President Donald Trump is experiencing a significant decline in approval among men under 30, a demographic that was crucial to his 2024 election success. While Trump narrowly won this group over Vice President Kamala Harris by approximately one point in 2024, recent polling indicates a dramatic reversal, with his approval underwater by about 55 points among the same demographic. This softening of support has been observed by activists and voters alike, with several key issues driving the shift.
Economic Discontent
A central theme emerging from discussions with young men, including those attending a June 14 UFC event at the White House, is economic dissatisfaction. Many expressed that the promise of lower gas and grocery prices, a cornerstone of Trump's appeal, has not materialized. "[Trump] said he was anti-war. He said he was gonna lower prices, and we’re just not…That result is just not happening," one attendee stated. Another bluntly commented on the high cost of living, saying, "Prices are ridiculous. Don’t even get me started on gas. I don’t even wanna fill my gas tank no more."
Even Jack Posobiec, a far-right activist who has promoted Trump to this audience, acknowledged that the economy is a difficult point for these voters. While he suggested that gas prices are beginning to decrease and that they are a consequence of efforts to counter Iran's nuclear program, this explanation may not resonate widely. An Economist/YouGov poll from early July found that 69 percent of young adults disapprove of Trump's handling of Iran.
Foreign Policy Concerns
Another significant factor contributing to the erosion of support is Trump's stance on foreign policy, particularly concerning wars and foreign aid. Many young men stated they did not anticipate new conflicts starting. When asked about a single issue Trump should address, a frequent response involved reducing foreign aid to Israel, citing taxpayer burden and the cost of human lives. "We don’t want conflict. A lot of young people are on the same page with that," one attendee remarked.
Posobiec noted that young conservatives are increasingly emphasizing domestic policy over foreign entanglements. He conceded that the perceived connection between foreign conflicts and economic hardship is difficult to disentangle for voters.
Erosion of Trust
The third area of concern revolves around transparency and trust, particularly in the context of the Epstein files. Some young voters feel that Trump's handling of the Epstein case, especially perceived delays in releasing information, has betrayed a promise of openness. "After the Epstein files and everything, [things have] ramped up with how he’s been acting," one young man observed. Another expressed the sentiment, "No one likes pedophiles. The way it’s portrayed, it seems like there’s trying to be some sort of coverup."
Posobiec suggested that a lack of transparency on such matters could damage Trump's connection with his base. He advocated for full disclosure, stating, "Just rip the Band-Aid off. Throw all the files out there." He warned that withholding information creates a barrier between Trump and the average person, undermining the perceived solidarity.
While these young men are not necessarily becoming Democrats, and many attended the UFC event for the sport rather than the president, their support for Trump appears to be less firm than in the previous election. The reported concerns about the economy, foreign policy, and trust indicate a tangible shift that could influence future electoral outcomes.