Young adults seeking to marry in their twenties may find higher rates of matrimony in the American heartland than in large coastal metropolitan areas, according to a new study from the Institute for Family Studies (IFS).
The research, part of IFS's "Get Married Maps," highlights significant geographic differences in early marriage trends. Areas with higher marriage rates for individuals aged 22-29 include Provo, Utah, and various regions in Tennessee, Indiana, Nebraska, Kentucky, Idaho, North Carolina, Kansas, and Georgia. In contrast, eight of the ten metropolitan areas with the lowest early marriage rates are concentrated around New York City and Los Angeles.
"For singles, your best odds of finding love and getting married aren’t in big coastal cities where most singles live, but in middle America, where more marriage‑minded singles are," said Wendy Wang, a senior researcher at the Institute for Family Studies. The study suggests that while coastal cities may offer abundant entertainment and dining, they may not correlate with higher marriage rates for younger demographics.
However, the study notes a shift for older demographics. For adults aged 30 to 39, marriage rates are higher in parts of the New York, San Jose, Los Angeles, and Chicago metropolitan areas, as well as some Texas and Indiana suburbs. This indicates that while coastal cities might not be optimal for marriage in one's twenties, they can be viable options for those marrying in their thirties.
The research also explored factors influencing marriage rates. For young adults, the study found a positive correlation between higher marriage rates and regions that favored Donald Trump over Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. This correlation was not observed for adults in their thirties, for whom the relationship reversed. "One possible explanation is that more rural parts of the country, where Trump generally performed better than Harris, often have higher marriage rates for adults in their twenties," the study suggests.
Additionally, the presence of single men who are employed full-time appears to be a significant factor. Military-adjacent communities and tech hubs like Oceanside, California, and Mountain View, California, show high ratios of full-time-employed single men to single women. For women in their thirties, regions with a higher ratio of single men earning at least $60,000 annually also showed higher marriage rates. For men in their twenties, earning $60,000 or more roughly doubles their likelihood of marriage compared to lower earners.
"Single men’s jobs remain one of the strongest factors driving marriage in America," Wang added. The study cautions that these findings illustrate broad regional patterns and do not imply that a specific location or political environment dictates marriage decisions. Researchers also noted that the study measures current residency and does not account for where individuals met their spouses or lived at the time of marriage.