Xi Jinping's US Visit Highlights China's Rise From Emerging Power to Global Force

When Chinese leader Xi Jinping last visited Washington for a state visit in 2015, his goal was to assuage American unease about China's rapid ascent. He succeeded, fostering deeper economic ties and cooperation with then-President Barack Obama, who declared that the U.S. welcomed the rise of a peaceful, prosperous, and responsible China.

Those days have passed. Xi returned to the U.S. capital this week for his first state visit in over a decade, projecting a newfound confidence and seeking stability amidst intense competition between the world's two largest economies. The U.S. and China now vie for dominance in areas ranging from artificial intelligence and space exploration to global influence.

"In 2015, China was a rising power still, profoundly and quickly rising, but rising undeniably," said Mira Rapp-Hooper, a visiting fellow at Brookings Institution's Center for Asia Policy Studies. "Now, China is risen."

Both economies have grown significantly. While the U.S. retains a considerable edge, Beijing has developed the capability and the determination to challenge American preeminence, according to Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center. This was evident when China matched President Donald Trump's substantial tariffs with its own, nearly halting trade and leveraging its near-monopoly in processing critical minerals – essential for everything from smartphones to fighter jets – to counter U.S. actions.

"In the past, China was disadvantaged in terms of strength, and it was not an equal to the U.S.," Sun said. "But now it is considered a near-peer."

In 2015, the U.S. voiced concerns about fair market access for American companies in China, intellectual property protection, cyber threats, and freedom of navigation in the South and East China Seas. Xi assured Obama that China was committed to reform, law-based governance, and would manage differences through dialogue, stating Beijing did not intend to militarize the South China Sea.

Today, Xi has consolidated power after purging rivals and abolishing presidential term limits. The U.S. has seen a change in leadership, with Donald Trump returning to the White House. Many issues raised in 2015 remain unresolved or have escalated: U.S. companies continue to seek market access, China's cyber activities have become more aggressive, and tensions in the South China Sea have intensified with an increased Chinese military presence.

Xi did not mention Taiwan in his 2015 remarks. However, during a meeting with Trump in Beijing, Xi warned of potential "clashes and even conflicts" if the U.S. mishandles the self-governed island, which Beijing claims as its territory. This week, Xi was expected to press Trump to delay an arms sales package to Taiwan.

Trump was scheduled to welcome Xi on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews, a departure from typical protocol.

China's economic landscape has also transformed. While the U.S. was China's largest export market in 2015, accounting for nearly 20% of its exports, its share has decreased to 11% of China's total exports. This shift is partly due to higher U.S. tariffs and China's success in expanding its markets globally.

China has also advanced significantly in global manufacturing value chains. Following a national strategy launched in 2015 to invest in key advanced manufacturing sectors, China has reduced its reliance on imports in areas like memory chips and medical devices. This has made Chinese companies globally competitive in industries such as drones, electric vehicles, clean technologies, and shipbuilding, according to an analysis by the Rhodium Group.

"There’s an undeniable sense of China’s progress on the global stage," said Kurt Campbell, chair of The Asia Group. "China is not arriving. It has arrived."

This manufacturing strength has translated into military power. China's shipbuilding capacity has enabled it to build the world's largest navy by vessel count, including a sophisticated aircraft carrier and advanced amphibious assault ships, according to Matthew P. Funaiole, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. However, the U.S. Navy maintains an advantage in overall tonnage and weapons systems.

China has also developed fifth-generation fighter jets, with a fleet that has expanded to hundreds, compared to none in 2015. In 2019, China became the first nation to land a spacecraft on the far side of the moon and operates one of the two space stations in orbit, being the only other country besides the U.S. with a space force.

The Pentagon's latest report on China's military indicates that China's military buildup has made the U.S. homeland increasingly vulnerable, with a growing arsenal of capabilities that can directly threaten American security. This contrasts with the 2015 assessment, which warned of the potential for China's military modernization to reduce core U.S. military technological advantages.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted that the U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and potentially the two most powerful militaries, necessitating interaction between the leaders. Meanwhile, Trump, despite recent political rhetoric, was looking to engage Xi, the leader of the world's most populous communist country, during the Washington visit.