The White House is reportedly anticipating President Trump will not receive the Nobel Peace Prize when it is announced on Friday. Despite this, some experts believe there are actions the president could take to become a future recipient of the prestigious honor.
This year, humanitarian organizations are considered strong contenders for the award. This comes after Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado presented Trump with her Nobel Peace Prize medal in January, stating he deserved it. Other reported frontrunners for this year's prize include Pope Leo IX, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, and Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of Alexei Navalny. Melania Trump has also been mentioned for her efforts in reuniting Ukrainian and Russian children with their families, though she is considered a longshot.
President Trump has publicly expressed his desire for the prize, citing his foreign policy achievements. "I settled eight wars. Another one is coming. I got all the hostages back. I did things that nobody else has ever done," he told reporters. He also acknowledged that the Nobel Committee might not favor individuals like him, "They have a reputation for maybe not giving it to people like me."
However, some analysts suggest that Trump could still win the prize during his presidency if he achieves two key objectives: ending the war between Russia and Ukraine and bringing peace to the Middle East. "Donald Trump can always turn this around," Dr. Arta Moeini, director of research at the Institute for Peace & Diplomacy, told The Post. "He could forge a new Middle East, and he could forge it diplomatically and through peace rather than through bombs and war. If he can deliver on his America First promises, then he would be a very good contender for this in the coming years."
Despite these possibilities, Moeini anticipates this year's prize will likely go to an organization. "It's most likely going to some sort of a peace group," he said. "There’s so many wars going on. It would be kind of strange to give it to another kind of domestic freedom fighter type of person."
The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded by a five-member Norwegian Nobel Committee, whose members are nominated by the Norwegian parliament. A senior administration official expressed that while the president deserves the award, the committee may not be supportive of him.
This year, 287 candidates were nominated, comprising 208 individuals and 79 organizations. While the full list is kept confidential for 50 years, some nominations are made public. Several Republican lawmakers have stated they nominated President Trump.
Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) confirmed he nominated the president but has not heard from the Nobel committee. He stated that he would be disappointed but not surprised if Trump does not win, adding, "Even the Nobel Peace Prize has become politicized."
Carter also believes that the ongoing conflict in Iran will eventually lead to peace in the Middle East, which should be considered for future awards. "We’re never going to have peace in the Middle East until Iran is under control," Carter said. "Through the conflict in Iran and through addressing this situation in Iran, he’s trying to ultimately get to peace. You will never get to peace in the Middle East until you have the leading state sponsor of terrorism under control."
Conversely, Haakon Gjerloew, acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, wrote in The Guardian that Trump is an unlikely candidate due to the ongoing war with Iran. Gjerloew, known for publishing a list of top contenders, highlighted several organizations as favorites this year, including Save the Children, Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, The Committee to Protect Journalists, The International Court of Justice, The International Criminal Court, and the International Space Station (ISS).
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms, a volunteer group formed in response to humanitarian needs, and the ISS partnership are seen by many experts as leading candidates. Gjerloew noted that the Sudan group exemplifies "the critical importance of access to lifesaving aid in times of conflict, and the power of everyday citizens to serve humanity in difficult times." He also pointed to the ISS as a symbol of international cooperation between Europe, the United States, and Russia, stating that a prize for the ISS would "celebrate what humanity can achieve when we work together."
Among individual candidates, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Pope Leo are considered to have slimmer chances. Moeini described Pope Leo as a "dark horse," noting that he represents the Catholic Church and has been critical of Trump's policies.