White House Claims 96% Drop in Immigration From Muslim-Majority Nations, Drawing Both Praise and Criticism

A post from a White House X account has sparked both celebration and scrutiny by claiming a 96% reduction in legal immigration from Muslim-majority nations since 2024. The account shared a graph, originally from the Cato Institute, which depicted a steep decline in quarterly admissions from these countries beginning in late 2024 and continuing into 2025.

Supporters on the political right have hailed the figures as a success for the Trump administration's policies. Rep. Brandon Gill, R-Texas, called it an "absolutely incredible victory for the American people." Brandon Herrera, the GOP nominee for Congress in Texas' 23rd District, stated, "These are the wins we need to continue to deliver on." Others, like Turning Point USA spokesman Andrew Kolvet, urged voters to support these policies, arguing, "Vote like Western Civilization depends on it, because it does."

The graph indicated that immigration from Muslim-majority nations, which peaked at over 22,000 individuals per month between July and October 2024, had fallen to nearly zero by January 2025. Former President Donald Trump has previously touted his administration's border policies, claiming "zero illegal aliens" were admitted in a 13-month period during his term, contrasting it with millions he attributes to the current administration.

However, David J. Bier, director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute and the researcher whose work informed the graph, pushed back against the White House's framing. In a reply to the White House post, Bier stated, "Thanks for citing my work. You are violating the law and harming Americans while making the country less safe, less free, and less prosperous."

While Bier's statement suggests illegality, no court has definitively ruled Trump's policies to reduce immigration from Muslim-majority countries as illegal. During his presidency, such restrictions faced legal challenges, including an injunction from a federal district court in Hawaii. However, appellate courts upheld the policy, and the Supreme Court ultimately ruled in favor of the administration in Hawaii v. Trump, finding the policy legal.