Washington Poised to Vote on Transgender Athlete Ban Amidst Shifting Public Opinion
A new poll suggests Initiative 638, which would prohibit transgender girls and women from participating in female K-12 sports, may pass in the progressive state, with activists claiming widespread but unspoken support.
Washington state is preparing for a vote on Initiative 638, a measure that would ban transgender athletes from competing in women's and girls' K-12 sports. The initiative, which garnered hundreds of thousands of signatures to qualify for the ballot, is scheduled for a vote on November 3. Despite Washington's generally liberal political landscape, proponents of the ban express optimism about its chances of passing.
Recent polling reportedly indicates that a majority of Washington voters will support the initiative. According to Let's Go Washington, a conservative political action committee advocating for the ban, a poll conducted by the group shows 56 percent of voters favoring the initiative. "People are with us, and they don't wanna say it out loud," Hallie Herzberg, a spokesperson for Let's Go Washington, told KUOW. "They don't want to be villainized for it. They will support us, and they will stand up for girls, but they will do it in the safety of their own ballot."
Nationally, public opinion appears to favor such policies. Polling from the Pew Research Center last year found that 66 percent of Americans support requiring transgender athletes to compete on teams aligned with their sex assigned at birth. Andrew Villeneuve, founder of the Northwest Progressive Institute, noted that voters tend to support bans on transgender athletes in girls' sports after reviewing the specific language of such initiatives as they will appear on the ballot. However, limited polling by Democrats suggests the outcome in Washington is not a foregone conclusion, with party spokesperson Stephen Reed stating, "This is not a slam dunk like some folks think it might be."
If passed, Washington would become the first state to enact such a policy through popular vote. Currently, 27 states have enacted laws separating biological males from women's sports in K-12 athletics, but these were passed by state legislatures. The state's upcoming vote also comes in the context of federal action; President Donald Trump signed an executive order in February 2025 aimed at restricting transgender athletes from participating in girls' and women's sports. Washington's Superintendent Chris Reykdal publicly opposed the order, calling it an attempt to force schools to discriminate against transgender female athletes and stating that it contradicted state law and school rules, including the Washington Law Against Discrimination.
The issue has also gained attention through legal challenges and the testimonies of female athletes. High school wrestler Kallie Keeler has filed an appeal with the Supreme Court, seeking an injunction to prevent her from being matched against a male opponent or to ensure her mother is notified so she can opt out without penalty. Keeler alleges she was sexually assaulted by a male opponent during a girls' match in December and was not informed of his gender identity beforehand. Despite this, Washington's high school athletics association and the state superintendent have maintained their stance, allowing students to compete according to their gender identity while legal proceedings are pending. The Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction (OSPI) has stated it will continue to uphold current state law unless it is changed, and has not issued special guidance to schools regarding the appeal.