Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan is set to face a leadership challenge this week, with Deputy Premier Ben Carroll indicating he would nominate if a party room meeting successfully moves to spill the leadership. The challenge comes just four months before the state's general election.
Reports emerged Sunday that senior Labor factional leaders met to assess Allan's support within the party room, with some participants suggesting she no longer retained majority support. Senior party figures reportedly met with Allan on Monday morning to convey this message and ask her to stand aside, urging Carroll to challenge her.
While Allan has not resigned and intends to contest any ballot, the situation introduces a period of uncertainty for the state government. If both Allan and Carroll were to contest the leadership, the process could extend for several weeks. This leadership turmoil occurs as the Labor party faces an uphill battle in the upcoming state election, with Allan reportedly a drag on the party's popularity after nearly 12 years in government.
Allan won the leadership unopposed in 2023 when Daniel Andrews resigned. At that time, Carroll initially put his hand up but withdrew his nomination and accepted the deputy premiership, a move described by some reports as forced to avoid a leadership vote.
Allan has been seen as struggling to step out of former Premier Andrews' shadow. While continuing much of his agenda, she has also inherited political baggage without his commanding popularity. The government has been beset by a series of controversies, including spiraling state debt, allegations surrounding the state's 'Big Build' project, and concerns about crime, all contributing to voter dissatisfaction alongside the cost-of-living pressures.
The article also notes that the premier's gender may influence how her management of these issues is perceived, referencing the concept of the 'glass cliff' where women appointed to leadership roles in difficult circumstances are often held to harsher standards and face brief tenures.
If a spill motion succeeds, a leadership election could occur as soon as Tuesday morning. Under current Labor rules, a leadership contest requires a ballot of both party room members and rank-and-file members, a process that could take over a month. Alternatively, Allan may resign under pressure before a formal ballot. The challenge could also fail if the spill motion does not pass or if Carroll's support wanes, though this is considered less likely. Regardless of the outcome, the leadership struggle is seen as painting the Victorian government as unstable and divided, potentially impacting voter satisfaction with democracy during an election year.