Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan is refusing to step down as Labor heavyweights prepare to meet Tuesday morning to decide her leadership, just four months before the state election. A cross-factional delegation, including six ministers, informed Allan that she has lost majority support within the caucus.
A leadership spill motion is anticipated at the 10 a.m. caucus meeting. If successful, it would trigger a leadership challenge. Allan, representing the party's left faction, has indicated she will nominate if the leadership goes to an internal vote. Deputy Premier Ben Carroll, from the party's smaller right faction, has confirmed he will also seek the leadership.
If a challenge proceeds, a vote by caucus and rank-and-file party members would ensue, a process that could take weeks. A caretaker premier, who is not a nominee, would be required to lead the party during this period.
Opposition figures have called for a broader change, with shadow attorney-general James Newbury stating that a change of government, not just leadership, is necessary. Newbury described Carroll as Allan's "partner in crime" and urged Labor MPs to support a no-confidence motion against Allan scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.
Pollster Tony Barry suggested that a change in leadership might not guarantee a victory for Labor, which is seeking a fourth consecutive term. Barry stated that a significant cabinet reshuffle and policy changes would be necessary for Carroll to differentiate himself from Allan and address declining voter support. "There's going to have to be changes around the Suburban Rail Loop and other things where he differentiates himself from Jacinta Allan," Barry said. "Otherwise he's going to be completely open to the attack of same horse, different jockey."
According to Newspoll figures published in The Australian, Labor's primary vote is trailing the Victorian coalition on a two-party-preferred basis, 52% to 48%. Barry believes the recent push to hold a leadership vote has dealt Allan's chances of leading the party into the election "a mortal blow," causing "irrecoverable damage" and making her position untenable.
Allan has faced increasing pressure in recent months due to revelations of corruption within "Big Build" projects. She has resisted calls for a royal commission into the sector, which corruption-fighting lawyer Geoffrey Watson has estimated has cost the state $15 billion. The government has also been challenged by ongoing crime concerns and a failure to reach a pay agreement with public school teachers.