Older buildings, substandard construction, and the nation's geography left many Venezuelan neighborhoods vulnerable to the intense earthquakes that struck the country this week, according to experts. The back-to-back seismic events were among the most powerful to hit Venezuela in over a century, causing widespread building collapses and a death toll that has surpassed 900, with officials expecting the number to rise.
Microsoft's AI for Good Lab analyzed satellite imagery of Catia La Mar, a city in La Guaira state and one of the most affected areas along the Caribbean coast. Using AI-powered damage assessment models, the lab determined that approximately one-third of the city's nearly 30,000 structures sustained damage. Videos and satellite imagery reviewed by The Associated Press also revealed the collapse of numerous multistory buildings.
Experts attribute the extensive damage to several factors. Some housing complexes in northern Venezuela were built rapidly during periods of oil wealth, and builders may not have adhered to best practices for mitigating seismic risks. Older housing constructed before modern earthquake standards were adopted in the 1970s may not have been retrofitted to withstand such severe shaking. Furthermore, many buildings were erected on soft soils or challenging topography, which can amplify seismic dangers.
David Cocke, a structural engineer in California and former president of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, noted that a combination of soft soils, tall buildings, and older concrete structures contributed to the widespread collapse, often characterized by pancaking—the floor-by-floor implosion of buildings.
"They just don’t have the more modern reinforcing steel connections that we put in those kinds of buildings today," Cocke said. He added that while countries like Japan, New Zealand, and the United States have updated building codes and enforced retrofitting or demolition of dangerous structures, many poorer or middle-income nations have lagged in implementing these upgrades due to more immediate concerns.
Other specialists highlighted the risk posed by non-structural walls made of heavy brick and the prevalence of "soft stories"—ground floors with open spaces, such as garages, which can increase the likelihood of pancaking. Eduardo Miranda, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Stanford University, stated that soft stories are a significant issue globally, and their combination with softer soils in Venezuela exacerbates the risk of building collapse.
The destructive impact was also compounded by the occurrence of a seismic doublet, where two large earthquakes strike in close succession. Geophysicist and researcher Marcos Ferreira of the Geological Survey of Brazil drew a parallel to a similar incident in Turkey and Syria in 2023, which resulted in a significant loss of life.
Venezuelan government officials did implement measures to update building codes following a deadly earthquake in 1967. However, the extent to which buildings have been retrofitted to comply with these regulations remains unclear. Following devastating floods and landslides in late 1999, during former President Hugo Chávez's first year in office, the government initiated a building program to replace destroyed housing and accommodate displaced populations. Juan Carlos Vielma, a Venezuelan civil engineer, noted that some newer buildings also appear to have collapsed, raising questions about engineering processes and current standards.
"Something that leaves me perplexed is the fact that, among the collapsed buildings, more than one was recently designed and built in accordance with current standards," Vielma said. "We need to embark on a process not only of reconstruction, but also of reviewing the applicable standards, since something might have gone wrong within our engineering processes, too."