Vice President JD Vance is facing a notable decline in early 2028 Republican presidential primary polling in New Hampshire, according to CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten. Vance’s support has fallen significantly since February, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio has gained substantial ground.
Vance’s support among likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire has dropped to 36%, a double-digit decrease from 53% in February, according to a new University of New Hampshire poll cited by Enten. This decline occurred despite Vance’s recent “push of his vice presidency in terms of PR” and a book tour.
Meanwhile, Rubio has seen his support climb from 7% in February to 26% this month. Enten described Rubio’s rise as climbing “out of the cellar” and nearing the vice president in the Granite State polling.
Enten highlighted that Vance's current 10-point lead over Rubio is historically small for a sitting vice president in early New Hampshire polling. He contrasted this with past potential presidential contenders, noting that Al Gore held a 40-point lead over his closest competitor in similar 2000 polling and George H.W. Bush led by 26 points in early 1988 polling in New Hampshire. Enten suggested that a sitting vice president, especially with a popular president of their own party, would typically hold a larger lead in such early surveys.
The data analyst concluded that Vance’s current standing in New Hampshire does not align with historical trends for vice presidents considering a presidential run, indicating that his recent public efforts may not be resonating in the state.