Vice President JD Vance asserted on Thursday that the United States' current engagement with Iran should not be characterized as a "war," even as Iran fired on U.S. ally Kuwait and retaliated for earlier U.S. strikes.
Vance, speaking at a White House press briefing, indicated that the conflict would not necessarily conclude before the November elections, in which Republicans aim to maintain their congressional majorities. "I wouldn’t call it a war," Vance said, noting that there is "no active shooting" at present. He added that the U.S. had a "responsibility" to conduct strikes because Iran continues to target commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
This framing attempts to mitigate the political challenge for the Trump administration as it seeks to retain control of Congress. The conflict, initially projected by the White House to last weeks, has contributed to rising gas prices and inflation. Vance declined to set "artificial timelines" for an end to the hostilities, stating, "When you ask, ‘When will this end?’ You’re asking me a question like, ‘When will the Iranians stop shooting at ships?’ I think the reality is, I don’t know the answer to that question. You would have to ask the Iranians."
The administration has faced scrutiny regarding how casualties are classified. In July, four fallen soldiers and dozens of wounded troops were reclassified in the Defense Casualty Analysis System under a new category, "Overseas Operations," after initially being included in war totals. This followed a brief ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran that collapsed.
Despite ongoing tensions, the White House maintains that oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz is nearing pre-conflict levels. Brent crude prices hovered above $95 per barrel on Thursday, significantly higher than the approximately $72 per barrel before the conflict began. On Wednesday, Vance stated that the U.S. escorted about 15 million barrels of oil, following Energy Secretary Chris Wright's report of 17 million barrels on Monday. Prior to the conflict, around 20 million barrels of Gulf oil moved through the strait daily.
However, independent tracking firms indicate that ship traffic through the strait remains below pre-war levels. Lloyd's List Intelligence reported 102 transits last week and 126 the week prior, compared to more than 130 daily transits before the conflict. TankerTrackers.com estimated an average of 5 million barrels per day exiting the strait over the past 28 days, with other recent estimates ranging from 2 million to 6 million barrels per day.
The Trump administration has employed a strategy combining economic pressure with threats of escalation. U.S. officials emphasize the impact of military actions on Iran's naval and air forces, with Iranian officials reporting $270 billion in damages. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that the Strait of Hormuz will become less significant within two years due to planned land pipelines.
Analysts suggest the administration is in a holding pattern ahead of the midterms, avoiding both a significant escalation and major concessions to Tehran. "The White House doesn’t want a massive war, and they don’t want to be seen as offering massive concessions," said Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "The tack they are taking avoids both of those things."