USC Football Navigates Challenging Path to College Football Playoff

Southern California's No. 19 football team (6-1) has several potential pathways to the College Football Playoff, but each requires overcoming a demanding schedule that could define coach Lincoln Riley's tenure. The Trojans are projected to be underdogs in at least three of their remaining games: against No. 4 Ohio State at home, and on the road against No. 5 Indiana and No. 12 UCLA.

Adding to the challenge, USC will travel to Wisconsin on Oct. 24, testing their ability to win in different time zones. While the Trojans have secured two Big Ten road victories this season against Rutgers and Penn State, the combined conference record of those opponents (0-5) offers limited evidence of their true road performance.

USC's prospects for a 12-team playoff field are slim with three losses, likely necessitating victories in at least three of their remaining high-profile matchups. The pressure on Riley has intensified after the team's failure to reach the playoffs in his first four seasons.

The Dominant Route

One scenario envisions USC decisively defeating Ohio State at home on Oct. 31, a victory that would significantly alter the narrative surrounding Riley's coaching. This win, coupled with subsequent strong performances, could silence critics and shift fan sentiment from discontent to support. The article notes that USC has already achieved a notable road win against Wisconsin, suggesting Riley can win away from home in the Big Ten. A subsequent victory over Indiana, a team that is not as dominant as in previous seasons, would further solidify USC's playoff position. The path culminates with a crucial win against rival UCLA at the Rose Bowl, securing a first-round bye in the playoff and positioning USC as a national championship contender.

The "Just Good Enough" Route

This pathway allows for more flexibility, acknowledging that USC could potentially secure a playoff spot with two losses. Various combinations of wins and losses against tough opponents like Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, and UCLA could still lead to a postseason berth. The article suggests that USC's toughest remaining games, in order, are against Ohio State, UCLA, Indiana, and Wisconsin. A rivalry game against UCLA on the road, especially against a motivated coach, is identified as a particularly challenging contest. Indiana's perceived struggles with quarterback play and susceptibility against lesser opponents are also noted.

The "Skin-of-the-Teeth" Route

This scenario posits that USC could potentially reach the College Football Playoff with three losses, given the strength of their schedule. If USC finishes the season 9-3 with their only losses coming against elite competition such as Oregon, Ohio State, and Indiana, the selection committee might consider them. This precedent is supported by Alabama's inclusion in the CFP last season with three losses, including a conference championship game defeat. While this path offers a chance for USC to participate in the playoffs, it comes with the understanding that their chances of winning the national championship might be diminished.