The United States has expended a significant portion of its missile stockpiles in the ongoing conflict with Iran, raising concerns among defense officials about the nation's readiness for future global challenges, especially a potential conflict with China. Estimates suggest that over half of certain weapon systems have been used, prompting calls for increased defense manufacturing and investment.
Retired U.S. Marines Colonel Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) noted that while the U.S. possesses enough missiles to sustain operations against Iran, the depletion of existing stockpiles presents a risk for future conflicts. "The risk is about a future conflict in the Western Pacific against China," Cancian stated, highlighting that military officials are increasingly worried about U.S. weapons inventory when considering scenarios beyond the current Middle East engagement.
CSIS analysis focused on seven key weapons effective in the Iran conflict that would also be valuable in a Pacific scenario. Reports indicate that nearly one-third of Tomahawk missiles and almost two-thirds of Patriot missile interceptors have been depleted. Precision strike missiles have also seen their remaining inventory drop to just over half.
While former President Donald Trump has maintained that the U.S. has ample munitions, defense experts and lawmakers are urging for a robust response to bolster the defense industrial base. "We have a defense industrial base that needs to be fixed at a very critical time in our history with the conflict in the Middle East," said Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas. "President Xi of China is watching our stockpiles very closely as he contemplates threatening behavior towards the Taiwan straits."
The Pentagon's budget request for Fiscal Year 2027 reflects a significant push to replenish and expand weapon manufacturing. Proposed spending includes a 513% increase for Tomahawk missiles, a 245% increase for precision strike missiles, a 650% increase for Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems, and a 927% increase for Patriot Missile Segment Enhancement.
However, replenishing these stockpiles is a lengthy process. Rep. Chris Deluzio, D-Pa., expressed concerns about the nation's ability to produce necessary munitions in the event of a prolonged conflict. According to CSIS, new Patriot missiles may take approximately three-and-a-half years to become available on the front lines, while Tomahawk missiles could take up to four years, and some other munitions orders might take as long as five years. This extended timeline is attributed to complex manufacturing processes, supply chain dependencies, and the need for facility expansion and workforce training.
Despite the challenges, efforts are underway to increase production capacity. The Trump administration has established framework agreements with contractors to boost manufacturing capabilities for critical munitions. "You can increase production capacity, we are doing that, [for] Patriot and many other systems," Cancian said. "First, you have to recruit more people and train them up. Then you can expand your facilities, but that takes time."