US Troops Complete Iraq Withdrawal, Raising Concerns Over Regional Stability

U.S. forces are completing their withdrawal from Iraq, concluding a military presence that began in 2003. The departure is viewed by Iran and its allied factions as a significant strategic victory, potentially enhancing Tehran's influence within the country. This development occurs over two decades after the U.S.-led invasion that resulted in the deaths of 4,500 American service members.

Security experts in Iraq suggest the withdrawal, agreed upon in 2024 and executed under the Biden administration, could grant Tehran and its affiliated groups greater freedom of action. Concurrently, there are concerns that this could embolden other adversaries, including remnants of the Islamic State (ISIS).

"Iran stands to benefit strategically from the coalition's departure because it removes a military presence that for years acted as a counterweight to Tehran's influence in Iraq," stated Jasim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi security analyst specializing in Iran-aligned Shi'ite groups. He anticipates that pro-Iranian militias will leverage the withdrawal as a triumph for their movement and seek to expand their influence in Iraqi security and political decision-making.

Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri, a commander within the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of Iran-backed factions, characterized the U.S. withdrawal as "a historic victory for the Iraqi Islamic resistance groups and honorable Iraqis, and a crushing defeat for the American project." He added, "Iraq has proven that its sovereignty cannot be secured by foreign forces, but by the resistance and the will of its people."

While the withdrawal of foreign forces garnishes broad support among the Iraqi populace, some express apprehension that it is premature. "We believe Iraq is still not fully ready to take over the security file at this time," said Abdulrahman al-Zobaie, a Sunni tribal leader from Fallujah. "But I believe that the (US-led coalition) leaving in this way and creating a vacuum is what all Iraqis fear."

U.S. forces initially invaded Iraq in 2003 to depose Saddam Hussein, subsequently occupying the country and later returning in 2014 to aid in the fight against ISIS. The United States suffered significant casualties in Iraq, with 'Operation Iraqi Freedom' claiming approximately twice the number of American lives as the war in Afghanistan, which concluded with a U.S. withdrawal in 2021.

In recent years, Iraq has navigated a complex geopolitical position, maintaining ties with both the United States and Iran. This delicate balance has occasionally led to Iraq becoming a proxy battlefield, most notably with the U.S. strike that killed Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad in 2020, followed by retaliatory attacks by Iran-backed groups on U.S. bases.

Iran views the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq as a victory for its regional "axis of resistance" across the region. Amir Hayat Moqaddam, deputy chairman of Iran's parliamentary National Security Commission, stated that "lasting security will prevail in Iraq" after the American departure and that Iran "welcomes the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq and will undoubtedly support it."

Concerns also persist regarding the potential for a resurgence of ISIS. Iraqi security officials, both within the federal government and the Kurdish region, believe the U.S. pullout could create opportunities for ISIS fighters who maintain a network of sleeper cells. Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani noted increased movement by ISIS cells following the withdrawal announcement, suggesting it has boosted fighter morale.

Iraqi security forces have reported thwarting suspected ISIS plots aimed at coinciding with the withdrawal, highlighting the group's continued capacity to exploit security gaps. Colonel Khalid al-Bayati, a senior security official in Kirkuk, stated that ISIS "is seeking to send a message that the group is still powerful and capable of launching bloody attacks."