A pharmaceutical trade deal between the United Kingdom and the United States could cost NHS England £45 billion over the next decade and potentially lead to at least 229,000 preventable deaths, according to experts. The analysis, published in the British Medical Journal (BMJ), estimates that the agreement, which increases the UK's spending on new medicines, could divert funds from crucial frontline NHS services.
The deal, agreed upon in December, requires Britain to pay 25 percent more for new medicines by 2035 to avoid trade tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump. This increase is expected to raise the health service's annual spending on medicines from approximately 9.5 percent of its budget to 12 percent, costing taxpayers around £3 billion per year.
Researchers from Christchurch Hospital in New Zealand, the University of York, and the University of Liverpool estimate that the financial impact on the NHS could reach £44.7 billion by 2036. They warn that diverting money from existing services could result in an estimated 229,000 excess deaths by 2036, a figure that could rise to 291,000 if adult social care is also affected.
The study suggests that patients with heart and breathing problems, digestive diseases, and cancer are likely to be most impacted. Researchers used metrics that examine the relationship between healthcare spending changes and patient outcomes, models previously utilized by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC).
According to their predictions, excess deaths could reach 137,000 by approximately 2033, comparable to the number of deaths recorded in the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, before rising to around 229,000 by 2036. The study also notes that reductions in NHS spending tend to have a greater effect on the most deprived populations.
Authors of the analysis argue that the government's willingness to prioritize industry demands over NHS funding raises questions about transparency and accountability. They advocate for policies grounded in public value and a renewed commitment to the NHS as a public institution with equity at its core.
Instead of increased spending on drugs, the researchers suggest that the billions could be allocated to cost-effective public health services such as obesity treatment, stop-smoking programs, exercise initiatives, and mental health care, which they argue would offer better value for money.
A spokesperson for the DHSC stated that the £45 billion figure is not recognized by the department. They asserted that the partnership with the US has reformed medicine pricing, allowing NHS patients access to new medicines and positioning the UK as a favorable location for pharmaceutical development and manufacturing. The department added that the deal would be funded through allocations made at the Spending Review, where record funding for the NHS was secured, and future funding will be determined at the next Spending Review. NHS England did not provide a comment on the report.