US, South Korean Officials See Little Chance of Trump-Kim Summit This Year
North Korea has shown little interest in diplomacy, despite President Trump's eagerness to restart talks.
US and South Korean officials believe the likelihood of a meeting between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un this year is diminishing, according to five individuals with knowledge of the situation. Trump, the only U.S. president to have met with a North Korean leader, has expressed a desire to resume diplomatic engagement, but Pyongyang has demonstrated minimal interest in negotiations focused on curbing its nuclear program.
U.S. officials have not received a response from North Korea regarding a potential Trump-Kim meeting. With little time remaining before a regional summit in China next month, where such a meeting might have been possible, the chances are slim, according to four individuals briefed by senior U.S. and South Korean officials, and one South Korean official.
North Korean state media has indicated that Pyongyang would impose strict conditions for agreeing to a bilateral summit, potentially including sanctions relief. This comes despite statements from Kim's sister suggesting an "excellent" relationship between the leaders.
In August, President Trump announced plans to meet with Kim later in the year, stating that the North Korean leader had responded to his overtures. South Korea's intelligence agency informed lawmakers late last month that there was a 50% probability of a Trump-Kim meeting on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen, China, scheduled for November 18-19.
However, Trump himself downplayed the possibility of such a meeting occurring during the APEC gathering or a regional summit in the Philippines, also in November. "I get along with him very well, and I’m not sure that anybody’s asking for a meeting," Trump told reporters.
Another South Korean official familiar with the matter stated that Pyongyang has not made any moves indicating preparation for a meeting with Trump. All sources requested anonymity to discuss private conversations.
South Korea's foreign ministry and North Korea's permanent mission to the UN did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Last week, Seoul's ambassador to Washington, Kang Kyung-wha, noted that no concrete progress had been made toward a Trump-Kim summit.
A White House official, speaking anonymously, stated that Trump's first term included three historic summits with Kim Jong Un that stabilized the Korean Peninsula. "US policy on North Korea has not changed. President Trump remains open to talking with Kim Jong Un, without any preconditions. No meetings to announce at this time. The leaders will meet at the appropriate time."
Last month, a senior U.S. official conveyed that Trump was "ready" to speak with Kim, adding that "the ball is very much in North Korea’s court."
Ankit Panda, a senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, estimated less than a 10% chance of a Trump-Kim meeting at the APEC summit. Panda suggested that if Trump desires a meeting, North Korea would likely seek a significant public concession, and the recent U.S. decision to scale back exercises with South Korea may not suffice.
Washington has occasionally sought China's assistance in mediating talks with North Korea, given Beijing's close ties with Pyongyang. However, recent cordial discussions between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at APEC have not led to breakthroughs with North Korea.
The two Koreas remain technically at war, with an armistice agreement ending the 1950-53 Korean War. The U.S. maintains approximately 28,500 troops and military assets in South Korea for combined defense against North Korea, which has continued to develop its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs.
South Korean officials estimate that North Korea possesses between 80 and 120 nuclear warheads, citing private research groups. The previous summits between Trump and Kim in 2018 and 2019, while historic, did not yield concrete results.
U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Michelle Steel remarked at an event in Seoul that any meeting between Trump and Kim would likely be announced with little notice. "If it happens, then it’s going to happen the next day or within a couple of days’ notice."