US Reportedly Weighing Major Strikes on Iran Post-Midterms

The United States and Israel are reportedly developing plans for significant strikes against Iran that could be launched after the U.S. midterm elections in November. The New York Times reported Wednesday that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth discussed the possibility of renewed strikes with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a visit to Israel this week. Potential targets are said to include Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenal.

U.S. officials have frequently stated that the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is nearing collapse but is deliberately prolonging the conflict to influence the midterm elections. President Donald Trump previously asserted that the Iranian regime would capitulate shortly after the elections, stating, "I think the war is going to end immediately after the election. They can’t hold out any longer."

Some officials advocate for a renewed, intense, but limited campaign of attacks to hasten Iran's economic collapse, particularly given the impact of an ongoing U.S. blockade on Iranian ports and economic sanctions. The aim is to make Iran more amenable to negotiations. Trump has previously expressed a similar view, telling Newsmax last week that he was considering additional military action, including a possible strike on Iran’s underground nuclear facility, Pickaxe Mountain. Reports also emerged that the administration was weighing the deployment of a GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, also known as the “mother of all bombs.” Trump has said the war would conclude soon, whether through negotiation or escalation, adding, "But I believe we’ll make a deal, right after the election."

Regional Tensions Escalate

Intensified fighting between Iran-aligned Houthi rebels and Saudi and Yemeni governments has raised concerns of a broader regional crisis. The State Department ordered nonemergency government employees and their families to leave Saudi Arabia due to escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure.

Israel’s upcoming October 27 election could also heighten the stakes of military action. Netanyahu, whom Trump has endorsed, would remain in office during the transition period, retaining authority to order strikes. However, strikes before or after an electoral defeat might invite scrutiny. Analysts suggest Netanyahu could leverage the prospect of joint strikes to form a unity government and remain in power.

Trump has not yet approved the proposed strikes, according to The New York Times. He has previously halted plans for renewed attacks, reportedly blocking an Israeli plan for an offensive against Iran earlier this month and rejecting five proposals for operations against Iran or the Houthis in recent months. The U.S. and Iran have not engaged in major direct fighting recently, with the last reported U.S. strikes on Iran occurring on September 8. Trump had previously ruled out attacking Iran before the midterms.

Iran's Stance and Response

Tehran's reluctance to concede to the U.S. appears to have solidified. Iranian leaders have reiterated that they will not negotiate directly with the U.S. unless Washington meets certain demands, including ending the naval blockade and releasing frozen funds. Previous U.S. and Israeli bombing campaigns, as well as attacks during earlier U.S.-Iran nuclear diplomacy, have hardened Iran’s view that the U.S. is not serious about negotiations. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated in March that prior disruptions to negotiation rounds had increased distrust in Washington.

The IRGC published an open letter last month appealing to American voters, stating, "Despite all the hardships that our enemies impose on us, we will continue fighting, as we have done for the past 47 years."

Both the U.S. and Iran seem to believe they possess sufficient leverage, a dynamic that has hindered progress toward a deal, according to an analysis by The Soufan Center. Iran’s primary leverage point is its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for global energy trade. However, Iran's ability to disrupt oil exports appears to be diminishing, with Middle East oil exports toading prewar levels as shipping companies utilize alternative routes.

Iranian officials have informed The Times that they are aware of U.S. and Israeli war planning and are developing their own countermeasures. IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohebbi warned that even a limited U.S. attack would provoke a "serious energy crisis" for the world. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei indicated that an attack on Pickaxe Mountain would be met with a response of equal or greater intensity. Earlier this month, Iranian officials stated that Iran had prepared retaliatory operations that would deviate from U.S. and Israeli expectations. Security Chief Mohsen Rezaei suggested Iran could target new sites, including U.S.-linked data centers and AI facilities in the Gulf, as well as subsea communication cables. Last month, Iran threatened to retaliate against further U.S. attacks by targeting U.S. oil and gas assets in the Gulf.

A senior adviser to Iran’s negotiator stated on Telegram that if the U.S. and Israel attack, "they may want to keep it short, but we will not allow it." He added, "The war will continue longer and across a wider geography than the enemy calculates."