The United States is reportedly considering airstrikes against al-Qaeda-linked terrorists in Mali, according to regional analysts and recent media reports. The potential U.S. action comes as jihadist groups, including Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), intensify their activities in the West African nation.
Mali's ruling military junta, which took power through coups in 2020 and 2021, has shifted its security partnerships away from France and the U.S. toward Russia and its Africa Corps mercenaries. However, these Russian forces have reportedly been ineffective against the escalating threat.
JNIM, designated a Foreign Terrorist Organization by the U.S. in 2018, is credited with recent attacks, including the deaths of 50 Malian soldiers this month and the country's defense minister earlier this year. The group aims to establish an Islamist jihadist state in Mali, which would be the first of its kind globally. Islamic State (ISIS) groups are also active in Mali and linked to regional networks.
A State Department official stated that the U.S. "unequivocally condemns the terrorist activity in Mali" and is "is committed to promoting regional ownership and cooperation against terrorist threats, and monitoring indicators and warnings of threats to our homeland." This strong language has led some analysts to believe that diplomatic options may be limited.
Edmund Fitton-Brown, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, noted that Mali's instability makes it a crucial concern for the U.S., potentially serving as a precursor to further instability across Africa. He indicated that U.S. military action could aim to prevent jihadist entrenchment.
Retired U.S. Air Force Maj. Gen. Kenneth P. Ekman suggested that airstrikes might also influence Mali's junta to re-evaluate its relationship with Russia and seek security and military equipment from the U.S. He described JNIM as having a "stranglehold on the government and much of the population," while deeming Russian efforts "woefully ineffective."
Ekman added that U.S. forces have previously supported partner-led operations against JNIM, and current proposals could represent a return to such cooperation against a shared adversary. The U.S. possesses capabilities such as cruise missiles and long-range bombers, though carrier-based operations are unlikely given the absence of U.S. aircraft carriers in nearby waters.
The strategic importance of Mali is further underscored by its significant gold and lithium deposits, resources crucial for rechargeable batteries. Some observers suggest that the U.S. administration, potentially under a future Trump presidency, might be more inclined to engage with juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger if they seek alternatives to Russian support.
Fitton-Brown cautioned that while the U.S. is a capable partner, military force alone may not be sufficient to reverse Mali's political decline or halt the rise of militant Islam. He also suggested that U.S. involvement might focus on intelligence sharing and developing local intelligence for strikes on JNIM leadership, acknowledging the group's resilience and ability to replace casualties.