US Politics Faces Rising Hail Threat as Climate Change Fuels Costlier Storms

Hail is emerging as a significant and increasingly costly weather hazard in the United States, with researchers warning that climate change could exacerbate the problem. Severe thunderstorms, with hail accounting for a substantial portion of the damage, have led to annual losses exceeding $50 billion nationwide in recent years, a figure more than double that of a decade prior, according to the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety.

In Colorado, a state particularly prone to hail, rising insurance premiums are being driven primarily by hail damage, rather than wildfires. Experts anticipate that larger and more destructive hailstones will become more prevalent as global temperatures rise. Atmospheric researcher Anthony Bernal Ayala of Atmospheric and Environmental Research, part of the JANUS Research Group, noted, "It’s going to just keep getting costlier and costlier."

A historic effort to study hail, the "In-situ Collaborative Experiment for the Collection of Hail In the Plains" (ICECHIP), aims to improve forecasting, enhance warning precision, and aid community preparedness. Funded with $11 million from the National Science Foundation in 2024, the campaign involved approximately 100 scientists and students chasing hailstorms across the Central Plains and Front Range in the spring of 2025. They utilized radar trucks, drones, high-speed cameras, disdrometers, and specialized funnels to gather data on hail size, distribution, and impact. International collaboration included scientists from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology deploying balloon-borne sensors into storms.

"This has really been the first time where we’ve been able to do a real comprehensive look at hail on the ground, hail aloft, the storm itself, the environment around the storm — just everything all at once," said Becky Adams-Selin, ICECHIP's lead investigator.

The collected samples were brought to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, a hub for weather and climate research. However, the future of NCAR itself has become uncertain. In late 2025, the Trump administration announced plans to dissolve the center and transfer its operations. The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), which manages NCAR, filed a lawsuit in March, alleging the administration is targeting NCAR in retaliation for Colorado's mail-in voting system and political stances. A federal judge has temporarily blocked the dismantling of NCAR, with the government expected to respond to the lawsuit by September 30.

"I can’t even quantify the impact that it would have to our community if we lost NCAR," said Victor Gensini, professor of meteorology at Northern Illinois University. "They are the beating heart."

Previous research indicates that while warmer temperatures might melt smaller hailstones, they can also fuel stronger updrafts. These updrafts can keep hailstones suspended in the atmosphere for longer periods, allowing them to grow larger and contributing to the increase in damaging hail events. Colorado has already seen evidence of this trend, with a record-setting hailstone measuring over 5 inches in diameter recovered in Yuma County in 2023. That same year, Colorado recorded 176 reports of hail 2 inches or greater, nearly double the previous record set in 2018.

Scientists also point to the "expanding bull's-eye effect," where increased development in hail-prone areas amplifies insured losses. The rapid population growth along Colorado's Front Range, for instance, has transformed previously open areas into densely populated targets for severe weather. Gensini described Colorado as "the poster child for what I expect the next 25 years to look like for hail."

In response to the growing threat, some communities are adapting. Fort Collins, Colorado, implemented hail-specific roofing requirements for new construction and remodels in 2019. While it's too early to definitively assess their long-term effectiveness, officials noted a decrease in roof replacement permits and less roofing material waste following a major hailstorm in 2018. Several Front Range communities now mandate impact-resistant shingles in their building codes, and Colorado has enacted legislation to offer grants for residents installing more resilient roofing.

Researchers involved in ICECHIP are also exploring ways to improve building materials to better withstand hail impacts, as billion-dollar storms become a more frequent occurrence. Ian Giammanco, a lead research meteorologist at the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety, emphasized the urgency, stating, "The dollars are simply piling up so fast. We’re still trying to understand how do we get the best materials onto roofs, onto people’s homes, onto businesses to actually start shaving off these losses."