The United States may be heading toward population decline in the coming decades, driven by falling birth rates and a widening gap between the number of children Americans want and the number they actually have. A report from the Institute for Family Studies (IFS) suggests that while most Americans still aspire to have larger families, delayed marriage and other factors are preventing them from reaching these goals.
According to the report, Americans express a desire for approximately 2.4 children, but actual fertility rates have fallen below 1.6 children per woman. This discrepancy is closely linked to family formation patterns, with researchers identifying delayed marriage as a significant factor. Lyman Stone, Director of IFS' Pronatalism Initiative and a co-author of the report, stated that people who marry earlier are more likely to achieve their desired family size.
"Conditional on marrying early enough, people almost always hit their fertility desires," Stone said. "The main factor shaping undershooting is just not getting married."
While some attribute declining birth rates to increased medical infertility, the report argues that the primary driver is the delay in starting families. Data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows a substantial increase in the median age at first marriage for both men and women since 1975. Stone noted that while human reproductive capabilities have not significantly declined, delaying family formation can adversely affect biological options.
The IFS report also highlights the influence of "peer culture" on fertility decisions. Young Americans with supportive social circles tend to desire larger families. For instance, those under 30 with more supportive friends reported wanting approximately 2.8 children, compared to 1.7 children among those with less supportive friend groups.
If current trends persist, the IFS projects that the U.S. population could peak in the 2050s and begin a steady decline. Stone anticipates that population growth could fall to nearly zero by the late 2030s, with decline becoming more rapid in the late 2050s and 2060s. Under these projections, the U.S. population might decrease by nearly one percentage point annually by the end of the century. The report estimates the population could peak at 351 million before declining if fertility rates continue to drop, or at 366 million if rates stabilize, with decline beginning in the 2080s.
To address this trend, the IFS recommends that policymakers prioritize family formation. Suggestions include eliminating marriage penalties in tax and welfare programs, expanding family-friendly housing options, and creating financial incentives for having children. Stone emphasized that the focus should be on how government policies can better support families, rather than solely on whether intervention is appropriate.
"We've got to wake up and be honest, the government is already intervening on family life and it's time to stop intervening against family life," Stone stated. He further warned that the consequences of declining birth rates extend beyond population numbers, asserting that strong families are fundamental to the nation's long-term prosperity and stability.