The U.S. military has paused its airstrikes on Iran, halting nearly two weeks of intensified bombing as diplomatic efforts press forward to avert a return to full-scale conflict. It remains uncertain if this marks a turning point in the mercurial conflict, which will reach its five-month mark this week.
President Donald Trump has simultaneously threatened further strikes and indicated that talks are progressing, while downplaying concerns that rising gas prices, linked to the conflict, could negatively impact Republicans in the upcoming November midterm elections.
Adding a layer of complexity is the anticipated visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Washington next week to meet with Trump. Israel, which initiated the war alongside the U.S. on February 28, has been conspicuously absent from the recent American attacks targeting Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping corridor responsible for approximately 20% of global oil flow.
Michael Singh, managing director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a former senior Middle East director on the National Security Council, noted that Israel's current lack of involvement might signal an intention to limit the conflict, while also acknowledging the possibility that it could escalate if Israel were to join. He expressed caution in overemphasizing the current lull, suggesting that a pause lasting multiple days would be more significant and that it is unclear if it is operational or intended to facilitate behind-the-scenes diplomacy.
A regional official involved in mediation efforts described concerted diplomatic activity underway, viewing the pause in U.S. strikes and Iranian counterstrikes on neighboring countries hosting American forces as a "positive signal that helps their efforts to de-escalate." This official, who spoke on condition of anonymity and was not authorized to discuss the matter, stated that both the U.S. and Iran desire a return to the interim ceasefire deal. Current negotiations reportedly center on a compromise allowing Iran to manage vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz with fewer restrictions.
Earlier in the conflict, Iran had restricted passage in the narrow Persian Gulf waterway by firing on tankers and freighters, leading to soaring oil prices. Following an interim ceasefire agreement in June, clashes over control of the strait intensified. Iran insisted on ships using a route near its coastline and suggested the possibility of charging fees. While U.S. overwatch operations facilitated ships navigating a southern route along Oman's coast, Iran subsequently attacked some vessels.
The U.S. responded by renewing attacks on Iran's coastal defenses, aiming to diminish Tehran's capacity to strike ships in the strait. The Trump administration expanded its targets to include bridges and infrastructure in southern Iran, and strikes penetrated deeper into the country's interior.
Singh suggested these strikes appear to be a tactic to bring Iran back to the negotiating table. The critical question now, he said, is what messages, if any, the Iranian regime is conveying through diplomatic channels and whether those messages indicate a greater willingness to resume talks.
One of the challenges facing the U.S. is Iran's fractured leadership, with competing factions vying for control, a point also raised by Trump administration officials. Leaders in Iran may be concerned that compromising with the U.S. could be perceived as weakness and potentially undermine their hold on power.
Economically, both the U.S. and Iran have a vested interest in the reopening of the strait, though their concepts for the conditions and control differ significantly. Singh believes a stable equilibrium on these issues is necessary before a prolonged period of calm can be achieved, anticipating that the negotiation tactics involving both words and force will continue until such an equilibrium is reached.
Despite the current lull in direct fighting, regional tensions remain high. Yemen's Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia in retaliation for Saudi airstrikes on Hodeida. The rebels also declared the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which has gained importance for Saudi oil exports since the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. military is also enforcing a naval blockade of Iranian ports, reporting the disabling of a Mozambique-flagged ship in the Gulf of Oman for attempting to violate the blockade and ignoring warnings.
President Trump has continued to issue threats against Iran even as he highlights diplomatic efforts. When asked about an exit strategy, Trump outlined two paths: continuing the current course of action, potentially at a faster pace, or negotiating. He expressed that Iran may not yet be ready for a deal but is becoming more serious daily.
Trump met with national security aides on Friday to discuss the situation and strategic options, including whether to maintain the current approach or escalate military actions. No U.S. strikes were reported in Iran overnight, following thirteen consecutive nights of strikes.
Trump asserted on Friday that he is "not in a hurry" to conclude the situation due to the approaching elections, emphasizing the need to "do it right."