A renewed U.S. naval blockade has caused Iran's oil exports to drop to near zero, a development that could destabilize the country's regime within two to three months, according to a former senior U.S. Treasury official.
Miad Maleki, who previously served in the Treasury Department under both the Trump and Biden administrations and is now with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, stated that the blockade has exposed Iran's most significant economic vulnerability. He predicts that the full impact of dwindling oil revenues will be felt this fall when critical payments are due.
"Iran's oil clock is running down and the real fiscal shock is going to hit in the fall when all their payments come due," Maleki said. Approximately 60% of the funds used to pay Iran's troops, government employees, security forces, and industrial workers come from oil exports. If these exports remain hampered, the regime will struggle to meet these obligations.
While the Iranian government has historically shown resilience in weathering economic hardships that affect ordinary citizens, Maleki suggests its attitude could shift if the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the economic elite begin to face financial strain. "The regime has proven that it can endure economic pains suffered by everyday citizens, its attitude will likely change once members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the wealthy elite start complaining," he noted.
Former President Donald Trump has previously asserted that Iran lacks the funds to pay its troops and has indicated a continuation of strong economic pressure. Current Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also signaled additional penalties targeting Iran's revenue streams, including money changers and cryptocurrency, as part of an initiative he termed "Operation Economic Fury." Bessent stated the goal is to achieve "economic isolation like the world has never seen before."
Satellite imagery indicates a significant decrease in tanker activity around Iran's Kharg Island oil hub, a key export point. Analysts suggest that Iran may believe it can outlast the U.S. in an economic standoff, especially as the ongoing conflict impacts the U.S. economy and contributes to backlash against the current administration.
Oil prices have remained high, with Brent crude near $90 per barrel, partly due to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. The average price of gasoline in the U.S. has also stayed above $4 per gallon in recent weeks.