The national homicide rate has reached its lowest point in 125 years, continuing a steep decline observed since 2025, according to a recent analysis of local crime data. However, this trend of falling violence does not extend to eight major U.S. cities, which have seen increases in homicides.
The nation experienced its most significant year-over-year reduction in murders in recorded history in 2025, with a 20% decrease from the previous year. This downward trajectory has accelerated in the first half of 2026, with homicides dropping an average of 18% across 21 of the 30 major cities surveyed by the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ).
"Murder and other crime rates are falling across the map, in cities with different political leadership, housing and economic conditions, policing and prosecution strategies, violence reduction models and levels of federal enforcement activity," said Adam Gelb, CCJ president and CEO. Gelb suggested that macro-level forces, such as increased remote work and a decrease in alcohol abuse, may be influencing this broad decline, alongside localized policing and violence prevention programs.
Among the cities with the most substantial decreases in homicides during the first six months of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025 were Lincoln, Nebraska, which reported zero homicides for a 100% decline, and Rochester, New York, with a 76% drop. Little Rock, Arkansas, saw a 61% decrease, and Arlington, Texas, reported a 60% reduction.
Other cities experienced notable declines, including Washington D.C. with a 41% drop, Los Angeles with an 18% decrease, and Atlanta with a 13% fall. New York City recorded a 22% decrease in homicides according to the CCJ analysis, with NYPD statistics indicating an even steeper decline of nearly 25% for the first half of the year, marking the fewest homicides recorded in the city during that timeframe.
However, eight of the surveyed cities experienced an increase in homicides during the first half of 2026. Norfolk, Virginia, saw the sharpest rise at 64%. San Francisco reported a 55% increase, Dallas a 30% rise, and Salt Lake City a 20% increase.
Austin, Texas, reported a 9% year-over-year increase in homicides, along with a 74% surge since the first half of 2019, the largest increase over that longer period among the analyzed cities. Homicides also rose 6% in Denver and 3% each in Chicago and Charlotte, North Carolina.
Some local law enforcement agencies have questioned the CCJ's findings. The San Francisco Police Department stated its recorded number of homicides showed a 23% increase, not the 55% cited in the analysis, while noting the city ended 2025 with its lowest homicide rate in over 70 years. Similarly, the Austin Police Department disputed a significant increase in murders, and Norfolk's Police Chief stated that the city's 2025 murder rate was a four-decade low. The CCJ noted that its analysis utilized data collected shortly after each reporting period, and subsequent official figures from local departments may differ.