The United States may not possess adequate munitions to sustain an extended, high-intensity conflict with Iran, according to defense analysts. This assessment comes as Iran demonstrates an increasing ability to circumvent American defense systems in regional attacks. Katherine Thompson, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, stated that while a short-term engagement might be manageable, the U.S. stockpile of air defense and long-range missiles could be insufficient if a conflict were to last for years.
Recent attacks have highlighted existing logistical challenges for the U.S. military in the Middle East, particularly concerning the protection of approximately 50,000 troops stationed in the region. Analysts have noted that U.S. missile inventories have been depleted by ongoing operations and previous military aid provided to Ukraine. Prior to renewed hostilities this month, the U.S. had reportedly expended over 3,000 Tomahawk, Patriot, and JASSM missiles.
In addition to these, hundreds of other advanced weapons, including THAAD interceptors, have been used. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that much of the U.S. missile inventory will not return to pre-war levels until the end of the decade. Thompson pointed out that a significant portion of the missiles used in the current conflict were deployed in the initial days of Operation Epic Fury, based on an assumption that Iran's missile capabilities had been degraded. However, Iran has continued to launch attacks.
Despite these concerns, U.S. defense officials maintain that the military is well-equipped to handle prolonged combat. Chief Pentagon Spokesman Sean Parnell affirmed that the U.S. military possesses a substantial arsenal to protect its personnel and interests. A Pentagon official added that the Department of War is committed to expanding the defense industrial base and integrating commercial solutions to maintain a decisive advantage.
Concerns about munitions vulnerability have also been raised in the context of a potential wider conflict, such as with China over Taiwan. The challenges posed by depleted supplies were underscored by the recent relocation of U.S. troops from Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar due to persistent Iranian attacks. These forces were moved to Jordan, which subsequently became a target.
An attack in Jordan resulted in the deaths of two U.S. service members and injuries to approximately two dozen others. Reports indicate that at least three missiles bypassed U.S. defenses at the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, with one striking a housing unit. U.S. officials suggested this incident demonstrates Iran's continued access to missiles and drones, which are increasingly evading American air defense systems.
Following the deadly attack, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a warning to Jordan regarding the presence of U.S. forces. A total of 17 American service members have been killed since the U.S. and Israel initiated Operation Epic Fury against Iran on February 28. The U.S. has conducted retaliatory airstrikes, with President Trump asserting that Iran's military capacity has been significantly weakened. Both U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei have indicated that their respective nations are open to negotiations to end the conflict.