US Midterms Could Test Voters' Shifting Views on Israel
While public opinion on Israel has declined, the issue is unlikely to be a top priority for voters in the upcoming general election.
Public sentiment in the United States regarding Israel has shifted significantly over the past 18 months, a change that was particularly evident during the Democratic primaries. However, this evolving perspective may not translate into a major factor in the upcoming midterm general elections, as Israel policy is rarely ranked among voters' highest priorities.
A poll conducted by the Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research earlier this month indicated that approximately 80 percent of registered voters consider the cost of living a top priority for Congress. Around 70 percent also prioritized ending the Iran war. In contrast, less than one-third of voters indicated that cutting off aid to Israel was a priority.
Fundraising and Political Influence
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) has been a significant spender in U.S. elections and a recurring point of contention in this year's Democratic primaries. However, in the general election landscape, AIPAC's influence has been overshadowed by substantial contributions from big-business donors, particularly in the tech sector, who have provided Republicans with a considerable spending advantage.
Interestingly, AIPAC announced on Wednesday that it would no longer endorse political candidates or make direct campaign contributions.
Congressional Tools and Potential Policy Shifts
Regardless of the midterm election outcomes, significant changes to U.S. policy toward Israel are unlikely in the short term. President Donald Trump currently leads foreign policy, and even a Democratic majority in Congress would have limited ability to reverse his agenda.
However, a Democratic majority could provide "new congressional tools to act on Israel-Palestine issues," according to Hady Amr, the former U.S. Special Representative for Palestinian Affairs. These tools, which include hearings, potential funding restrictions, and reporting requirements, could lay the groundwork for broader policy shifts under a future Democratic president.
Races to Watch
Several congressional races could see discussions around U.S. policy toward Israel:
- Florida's Senate race, where Democratic nominee Angie Nixon has voiced criticism of her party's connections to the pro-Israel lobby.
- Michigan's Senate race, where the campaign of Democrat Abdul El-Sayed emerged from pro-Palestinian activism.
- Michigan's Seventh Congressional District, a purple district where progressive candidate William Lawrence has been vocal in his criticism of U.S. support for Israel.