The United States' "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran is exposing deep-seated weaknesses within the Islamic Republic's regime, according to an analysis by Rich Goldberg, a senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. The strategy, which combines economic sanctions with military measures, aims to cripple Iran's ability to fund its regional activities and may hasten a potential collapse of the current government.
President Donald Trump's administration has implemented a series of stringent measures designed to cut off Iran's revenue streams, particularly from oil sales. The Treasury Department has targeted Chinese, Indian, and other third-country oil brokers and tanker operators, as well as entities involved in Iran's "shadow fleet" and illicit financial networks. These economic actions are supported by a U.S. Navy blockade of Iranian ports, involving numerous warships and aircraft, which incurs significant daily costs for Iran.
Military and Covert Pressure
Beyond economic sanctions, the U.S. strategy includes tactical, large-scale air strikes and other military actions aimed at damaging the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other military installations. These operations are intended to keep the regime off balance while diplomatic efforts, involving intermediaries such as Pakistan and Qatar, pursue a cessation of hostilities. However, the analysis suggests that diplomacy is unlikely to yield a lasting resolution, citing Iran's past violations of agreements and its defiance, such as its actions regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
Internal Instability and Economic Hardship
The "maximum pressure" campaign is exacerbating Iran's already precarious economic situation, which has been further damaged by a joint U.S.-Israeli air campaign initiated on February 28 that reportedly inflicted close to $150 billion in damages. Years of economic mismanagement and corruption, particularly by IRGC leadership, have contributed to widespread popular discontent, leading to multiple protest movements since 2018. The analysis notes that the regime's violent suppression of these protests, including the execution of demonstrators, indicates an underlying weakness and fear among its leaders.
The regime's top leadership has also been impacted, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reportedly killed along with numerous senior military commanders in the opening phases of recent military operations. While the IRGC generals are said to be consolidating power, internal divisions between military and civilian factions tasked with negotiations are also apparent. Furthermore, intelligence suggests that the Mossad has penetrated Iran's national security apparatus, potentially enabling targeted strikes against senior officials.
The combination of economic hardship, internal dissent, and pressure from external military and covert actions could push the Iranian regime toward collapse. The analysis concludes that maintaining economic pressure, continuing military and covert actions against IRGC centers, and expanding support for internal activists are key to hastening this outcome and ushering in a new era in the Middle East.