US Intelligence Warns of Russian Drone Plot Targeting Italy, Spain, and France

U.S. intelligence agencies have issued a warning detailing a potential Russian plot to launch drone attacks against Italy, Spain, and France, according to a report by the Spanish newspaper El Mundo. The report suggests that unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) could be deployed from merchant ships operating in international waters, posing a threat to these Mediterranean nations.

These countries, along with Britain, are known to supply military assistance to Ukraine in its ongoing conflict with Russia. While specific targets were not named in the U.S. intelligence assessment, the potential impact is described as significant, encompassing material, political, and economic consequences.

A defense-connected source within NATO, located in Lithuania, indicated that the operation could involve drones launched from the sea, concealed within cargo containers. The "Gerbera drones" reportedly used by Russia could be deployed from distances of 125 to 190 miles offshore.

The warning comes amid broader concerns from Western intelligence agencies about Russia's potential to conduct limited attacks on NATO states in the coming months, rather than years. Previously, the perceived threat from Russia had been focused more on Northern Europe, with instances of drones violating the airspace of Poland, Romania, Lithuania, and Latvia, as well as Moldova. Germany has also reported a Russian drone operation in Leipzig.

According to sources, European nations were alerted to the potential threat to the Mediterranean region following a visit by former CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow approximately one month prior, during which he engaged with Russian intelligence officials.

French President Emmanuel Macron reportedly convened his Defense Council on September 16, and subsequently met with leaders of all political parties and presidential candidates to discuss the situation. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has also acknowledged receiving warnings about potential Russian attacks targeting countries that provide weapons to Ukraine.

Several European intelligence chiefs have expressed concerns that Russia may be preparing to test NATO's resolve. Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Republic's BIS security service, stated that Russian incursions onto NATO territory are possible and could occur within months, potentially alongside false-flag provocations and influence campaigns. However, Normunds Mežviets, director general of Latvia's state security service, noted that while Moscow is increasing its interference activities in Europe, there are no immediate indications of an imminent attack.

Mežviets added that it is still unclear whether Russia has concrete plans or if these actions are solely aimed at instilling fear and uncertainty in Western societies. He also commented that it is a positive development that Western Europe is now more aware of the Russian threat, recalling that warnings from Baltic and Polish officials prior to 2022 were often not heeded.

Western officials have observed an increase in Moscow's targeting of European states, coinciding with a largely static front line in Ukraine. Thomas Nilsson, head of Sweden's military intelligence and security service, assessed that Russia is likely continuing to pursue its strategic objectives and engaging in "negotiation theatre" rather than preparing for genuine negotiations. The intelligence chiefs concur that Russia's "shadow war" is expected to intensify in the coming months.