U.S. intelligence agencies believe Iran's new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, is significantly more willing to pursue a nuclear weapon than his late father, a shift that heightens tensions as President Trump considers further military action.
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei assumed leadership after his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in an Israeli strike reportedly backed by U.S. intelligence. For years, U.S. officials considered Ali Khamenei's religious ban on nuclear arms to be sincere, even as Iran developed its nuclear infrastructure. However, current intelligence assessments suggest his son may have fewer ideological reservations about developing nuclear weapons and could support a more advanced arsenal, according to The New York Times.
This perceived shift in stance could strengthen the case for additional U.S. strikes if Washington determines Tehran is moving toward a political decision to build a weapon. For the present, Iran has not resumed enrichment or weapons work following last year's U.S. airstrikes, which caused substantial damage. Tehran appears to be concentrating on salvaging critical assets, particularly the fortified underground complex known as Pickaxe Mountain.
US officials report that Iran has moved centrifuges into the Pickaxe Mountain facility, located deep within a mountain in central Iran. While Israeli intelligence tracked the equipment, Washington believes the objective is to safeguard key assets rather than restart enrichment activities. Tehran has increased ground forces around the site, amid concerns the U.S. might attempt a commando raid instead of relying solely on airstrikes.
These concerns stem from the June 2025 U.S. airstrikes ordered by President Trump on three of Iran's primary nuclear sites. Although Trump declared Iran's program obliterated after B-2 bombers struck Fordo and Natanz and Tomahawk missiles hit Isfahan, intelligence assessments indicated the damage primarily delayed the program by several months. The delay was extended as Iran opted not to rebuild or restart enrichment elsewhere, and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium remained intact.
Intelligence regarding Mojtaba Khamenei's intentions is subject to caveats. Much of the information predates the ongoing conflict. The new Supreme Leader was reportedly injured early in the war and has largely remained out of public view. Officials also question whether he currently wields the same level of authority his father held for over three decades. However, intelligence suggests Mojtaba Khamenei is perceived to have a greater interest in nuclear capabilities than his father. While earlier assessments indicated Iran had explored a rudimentary device, Mojtaba is thought to favor sophisticated warheads compatible with long-range missiles.
Ali Khamenei's religious decree prohibiting nuclear weapons did not prevent Iran from mastering the technology to produce them. Hardliners have long argued that Iran should possess the capability to assemble a bomb rapidly if necessary. Officials now caution that the ongoing conflict may have provided these hardliners with a compelling argument: that a nuclear deterrent is the only means to prevent future strikes or efforts to overthrow the regime. If this interpretation is correct, a campaign intended to halt Iran's nuclear ambitions may have inadvertently intensified its pursuit of the very weapon that Washington has sought to prevent for decades.