The United States is experiencing a significant decline in homicides, with data from 30 American cities indicating an 18% decrease in the homicide rate from 2025 to the same period in 2026. This trend, if it continues, could result in the annual homicide rate falling to its lowest point in over a century by the end of the year, according to a new report from the Council on Criminal Justice.
The report, which tracks 13 categories of crime, also recorded decreases in nine of those areas, including carjackings, residential burglaries, and aggravated assaults. However, there were slight increases in shoplifting, domestic violence incidents, sexual assaults, and drug offenses during the same timeframe.
Experts suggest these positive crime trends are exceeding expectations and show improvements compared to pre-2020 and pre-pandemic baseline rates, which saw significant surges in violence. The decreases are occurring across cities with diverse political leadership, differing economic conditions, and varied public safety strategies, according to Adam Gelb, president and CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice. Gelb stated that the improvements are not tied to specific local measures but are broadly nationwide.
The Council on Criminal Justice gathers data from police departments and law enforcement agencies. Some crime categories draw data from up to 36 cities, while others include fewer due to tracking discrepancies or differing definitions.
The report also noted a 23% drop in the lethality of crimes, meaning a smaller proportion of serious violent incidents resulted in death. Many non-violent crimes also declined, with residential burglaries falling 13% year-over-year and 50% compared to 2019 levels. Conversely, reported shoplifting rose by 5%, and although drug offenses saw a small increase, they remain below pre-pandemic levels.
While the overall trend is downward, approximately one-third of the sampled cities experienced an increase in homicides from the first half of 2025 to the same period in 2026. Cities like Norfolk, Virginia, saw a 64% increase, and San Francisco reported a 55% rise. Only Norfolk, Austin, Pittsburgh, and Minneapolis recorded more homicides in 2026 than in the same period in 2019.
John Roman, director of the Center on Public Safety and Justice at the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago, noted that varying factors can explain localized increases or decreases. He suggested that explanations may transcend specific political administrations, potentially including reduced drug use leading to fewer market-driven crimes and the impact of federal funding distributed after the pandemic for social programs aimed at at-risk youth.
Both Gelb and Roman agreed that there is no single cause for the widespread crime reduction. Gelb described the outcome as one of the most significant public safety developments in decades, saving lives and restoring community stability.