US Fertility Rate Declines Sharply, Approaching All-Time Lows

The total fertility rate in the United States has fallen by nearly a quarter in less than two decades, reaching a projected 1.58 births per woman in 2025, down from 2.12 in 2007. This decline marks the first time since before the Great Recession that the rate has fallen below the 2.1 births per woman needed for natural population replacement.

Concurrently, foreign-born mothers are now contributing significantly to the birth rate, accounting for approximately 22% to 25% of all births in the U.S. annually, which translates to roughly 800,000 to 900,000 children each year. Immigrant women have a higher fertility rate (1.79 births per woman) compared to U.S.-born women (1.53 births per woman), though both rates are below the replacement level.

Projections indicate a continued downward trend. Between 2026 and 2056, the U.S. total fertility rate is expected to decrease from 1.58 to 1.53 births per woman, a 3.2% drop. The rate for U.S.-born women is anticipated to fall from 1.53 to 1.50 births per woman (a 2% decrease), while the rate for foreign-born women is projected to decline from 1.79 to 1.66 births per woman, a steeper fall of 7.3%.

These demographic shifts suggest an aging American population, with the annual number of deaths potentially exceeding births as early as 2030. Without immigration, the U.S. population would begin to shrink within four years. Population growth is expected to decelerate, from an average of 0.3% annually in the next decade to 0.1% per year between 2037 and 2056, indicating a potential population decrease in the latter half of the 21st century, even with immigration.