A catastrophic biological attack on the United States, potentially involving a genetically modified plague, could lead to societal collapse and a grim future for humanity, according to veteran author Annie Jacobsen's new book, "Biological War: A Scenario." The book posits a fictional worst-case scenario, drawing on interviews with over 50 experts and former government officials, to illustrate the potential consequences of such an event.
Jacobsen's scenario depicts widespread chaos, with societal breakdown and mass casualties. Retired Air Force colonel Dr. Thomas Ehrhard is quoted in the book stating that "there is no real homeland defense against a large-scale biological attack, only things you can do to mitigate extermination." The narrative suggests that recovery would be nearly impossible, leading to a "biological twilight" for the world.
Precedent and Preparedness
The foundation for Jacobsen's scenario is built upon real fears and existing government planning. She reveals that in the initial weeks of the COVID-19 crisis, then-Secretary of Defense Mark Esper signed a Warning Order (WARNORD) directing the U.S. Northern Command to "prepare to deploy" for potential extraordinary missions. This order, which Newsweek reporter William Arkin first reported, signaled a military readiness for domestic operations, a step short of martial law.
Furthermore, Jacobsen highlights a 2000 federal simulation exercise where thousands of participants practiced responding to a simulated terrorist release of pneumonic plague in Denver. The exercise, which simulated a real-life transmission rate, quickly overwhelmed the healthcare system, leading to its collapse by the fourth generation of infections. The simulation's after-action report noted exhaustion among health officials and a pervasive sense of hopelessness, with dwindling supplies and overwhelmed first responders.
The Devolution Plan
A central element of Jacobsen's hypothetical response is the "Devolution Plan." Described as a secret transfer of power to backup leaders and hidden command centers, this plan is intended to ensure the government's continuity even as national infrastructure collapses and a significant portion of the population perishes. Jacobsen writes that the plan has been covertly rehearsed for decades across multiple administrations since the advent of the atomic bomb, serving as a last federal effort to maintain control.
In her scenario, the president invokes the Insurrection Act, leading to martial law and a shutdown of the internet to quell riots and the spread of misinformation. The military's focus shifts to protecting critical infrastructure like nuclear power plants, while the president is relocated to a secure, undisclosed facility to lead from isolation. This drastic measure is presented as a last resort to preserve a semblance of governance.
The Biotechnical Arms Race
Jacobsen also points to a "vast new biotechnical arms race" fueled by fear and paranoia, particularly in the wake of 9/11. This development, she argues, has been a lucrative endeavor for defense contractors and biotechnologists. The book also raises concerns about the lack of a plague vaccine in the U.S., contrasting it with Russia's reported possession of such a vaccine.
The engineered plague in Jacobsen's scenario is described as being mixed with euphoria-inducing endorphins, designed to make infected individuals unknowingly spread the disease. This concept is reportedly based on experiments conducted by the former Soviet Union, which involved engineering the plague bacterium to induce a sense of well-being, encouraging socialization and further transmission.
International Context and Treaties
While the book focuses on a U.S. response, it touches upon international efforts and shortcomings. The 1972 Biological Weapons Convention, aimed at prohibiting the development and stockpiling of biological and toxin weapons, is mentioned. However, the treaty lacks enforcement mechanisms and permits "defensive" biological weapons research, creating loopholes that have contributed to global stockpiles. Soldiers from various nations, including Thailand, Korea, and Japan, have participated in joint training exercises with U.S. troops to address biological weapon threats, underscoring the international nature of this concern. Ukrainian soldiers have also heavily trained to handle biological and chemical weapons amid ongoing conflicts.
Jacobsen concludes that if such a biological war scenario were to materialize, the responsibility would lie with humanity's inability to safeguard its own biosphere, despite its advancements in other scientific fields.