The fragile 60-day ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran teetered on the brink of collapse this week, culminating in President Donald Trump declaring the deal "over" following a second round of U.S. strikes. These actions were in retaliation for Iranian attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump described Iranian officials as "scum" and "sick people" while speaking at the NATO summit. On Wednesday night, the U.S. launched intensified strikes, hitting 90 targets across southern and northeastern Iran, according to U.S. Central Command. Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that U.S. strikes hit two bridges.

The 60-day ceasefire, agreed upon in a mid-June Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), had been unstable since its inception. Previous flareups typically involved Iran attacking commercial shipping, followed by limited U.S. retaliatory strikes, and then Iranian attacks on U.S. allies in the Gulf like Bahrain and Kuwait. This pattern changed this week when the U.S. conducted "offensive" strikes for a second consecutive night, and Iran responded by targeting Jordan.

Timeline of Conflict

The conflict began on February 28 when Israel, with U.S. intelligence assistance, assassinated Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, initiating a two-month air war between the U.S. and Iran.

On April 7, the U.S. and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire. Vice President JD Vance subsequently traveled to Pakistan for negotiations with Iranian officials, and the ceasefire was extended indefinitely in late April.

Memorandum of Understanding

The U.S. and Iran formalized the ceasefire with a 14-point MOU on June 17. The agreement lifted the U.S. naval blockade, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and offered Iran economic incentives, including a waiver on oil sanctions. This interim deal set a 60-day period for negotiating a permanent agreement, addressing key issues such as Iran's nuclear program and the security of passage through the strait. Negotiations, which began in Switzerland, have since stalled.

The Strait of Hormuz quickly became a point of contention. The MOU stated that Iran would use "its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels, with no charge for 60 days only," but did not preclude Iran from enacting "service fees" in the future. Iran has interpreted this language as maintaining its control over the strait.

Ceasefire Violations

On June 25, just over a week after the MOU was signed, Iran launched a drone strike against a ship in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. viewed this as a violation, leading to a round of contained strikes. The following day, Iran attacked a tanker, and the U.S. responded by striking multiple targets. Iran also attacked Bahrain and Kuwait, but these were intercepted by the U.S. The tit-for-tat exchange ended shortly thereafter.

Early this week, Iran struck three vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. In response, the U.S. rescinded Iran's international oil sales license, reversing a key provision of the MOU that promised significant economic relief. This escalation followed a period of increased traffic in the strait, which slowed considerably after the U.S. response.

Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohamed Ghalibaf stated on X that "Hormuz will only open with Iranian arrangements, not American threats." Vice President Vance reiterated the U.S. stance, stating that "That artery has got to remain open, and that is what the Iranians have to know. If they try to close it down, there's going to be response from the American military. It's that simple."