A U.S.-backed initiative aimed at disarming Iran-linked militias in Iraq is encountering challenges, with experts expressing cautious optimism mixed with skepticism regarding Baghdad's commitment to fully integrating or disbanding these groups. While Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has stated that armed groups outside state control will have "no justification" after the international coalition's mission ends, a senior Iraqi official clarified in late August that September 30 is the date for the coalition's departure, not a deadline for weapon handover.
The Iraqi government's strategy involves integrating militias, known as the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) or Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), into state apparatus. Some factions, like the Saraya al-Salam led by cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, have favored integration. However, more hardline pro-Iranian militias, including Kataeb Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, have declared they will not disarm or integrate.
This mixed messaging comes despite previous statements from Prime Minister al-Zaidi emphasizing broad political agreement on restricting weapons to state control and developing handover mechanisms. He stated in July that the presence of weapons outside state authority discourages investment and does not serve Iraq's interests.
In May, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned Iraq's Deputy Minister of Oil, Ali Maarij Al-Bahadly, for allegedly facilitating oil diversion to benefit Iranian-backed militias. The Treasury stated that Iran was pillaging Iraqi resources to fund terrorism. In late August, Iraqi anti-corruption bodies reported that Al-Bahadly was sentenced to seven years in prison for corruption.
Alberto Fernandez, a former U.S. ambassador and Middle East analyst, claimed that profits from Iraqi oil sales passing through the Strait of Hormuz partially fund Iran's militias in Iraq. An Iraqi government spokesman dismissed this assertion as inaccurate.
A State Department spokesperson affirmed strong U.S. support for Prime Minister al-Zaidi's vision to free Iraq from terrorism and foster a beneficial partnership with the United States. However, some analysts remain doubtful.
Entifadh Qanbar, a former Iraqi official, expressed skepticism about decisive action against the militias, particularly after al-Zaidi's visit to the White House. He noted that while some militias issued statements about handing over weapons, there is no credible evidence of actual disarmament. Qanbar suggested that a visit to Baghdad by IRGC Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani may have influenced militia leaders to slow down disarmament talks and maintain their weaponry as part of Iran's regional strategy.
Elizabeth Tsurkov, a senior fellow at the New Lines Institute, indicated that the Iraqi government is attempting to assert control but often backs down due to the militias' willingness to use force, even against their own people and security forces. She noted that militias have infiltrated many state institutions.
Tsurkov, who was held hostage by Kata'ib Hezbollah, an Iran-backed group designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S., highlighted a recent setback for the Iraqi government. The Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service arrested Abbas al-Yaqubi, head of intelligence for the PMF’s Baghdad Belt Operations Command. However, al-Yaqubi was subsequently transferred to the PMU intelligence branch, a move Qanbar described as a significant setback after the arrest was initially viewed as a positive step toward confronting powerful militia figures.