The United States coastline is under observation for two tropical disturbances. One system, currently designated Invest AL97, is moving towards the Texas and Louisiana coasts, with a significant likelihood of developing into a tropical depression or storm. Meanwhile, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly are progressing westward across the Caribbean and are anticipated to influence rainfall in Florida later in the week.
Invest AL97 was located more than 98 miles south of Louisiana early Monday and was moving slowly west-northwest. Satellite imagery indicated that its circulation was not yet well-organized, though it was producing winds between 29 and 35 mph, with conditions that favor further development. Forecasters anticipate AL97 reaching Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana by Tuesday morning. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has assigned this system a 70 percent chance of development within the next seven days. The NHC also stated that tropical storm watches or warnings could be issued for the area on Monday, and heavy rainfall is expected along parts of both coastlines regardless of the system's eventual classification.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was scheduled to investigate the Gulf system on Monday morning. According to weather observers, the system has shown increasing organization, with deep convection developing around its circulation and persistent lightning near the center. This presentation has led some to believe the system is more organized than some model guidance has suggested.
Farther east, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly are producing showers and thunderstorms across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern Leeward Islands. While this system remains a strong tropical wave, it lacks a fully formed center of circulation, making redevelopment unlikely in the immediate 48 hours. Dolly is moving west to west-northwest at approximately 25 mph. Conditions could become marginally more favorable for redevelopment by midweek as the system approaches the Gulf of Mexico, but its chances of reforming remain low, estimated at only 20 percent over the next seven days.
Even without redeveloping into a named storm, Dolly's remnants are expected to impact Florida. The wave could draw additional tropical moisture into the state, potentially leading to more widespread rain and stronger afternoon thunderstorms later in the week. This pattern may also contribute to an elevated rip current risk at Florida beaches. East Central Florida, including areas like Vero Beach, is bracing for a hot, muggy, and stormy week with chances of scattered to widespread thunderstorms from late Monday morning through the evening. These storms could bring damaging wind gusts up to 50 mph, frequent lightning, and torrential rain, with the potential for localized flash flooding from slow-moving storms. High temperatures are forecast to be between 89 and 92 degrees Fahrenheit, with humidity making it feel over 100 degrees. The risk of excessive rainfall in parts of the region is rated as marginal (Level 1 out of 4) for Thursday. Offshore conditions are expected to be relatively calm with light winds and low waves, though daily thunderstorm activity remains a threat for boaters.