US-backed negotiations intended to reshape Venezuela's political landscape ahead of future elections are set to begin Saturday, though the country's most prominent opposition figure, Maria Corina Machado, will not be present.
The talks, which will be led on the opposition side by Dinorah Figuera, are backed by the U.S. in its efforts to reform Venezuela's electoral council and top court to ensure fair elections. Three sources familiar with the matter stated that the U.S. selected Figuera to lead because she heads an opposition-dominated faction of the 2015 National Assembly, which the U.S. continues to recognize as Venezuela's last democratically elected legislature.
Jorge Rodriguez, the brother of Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodriguez and head of the National Assembly, will lead the government's delegation. He has a history of participating in previous negotiations with the U.S. and the opposition.
Maria Corina Machado, a Nobel Peace Prize winner and Venezuela's most popular opposition figure, will not be participating. Machado left Venezuela late last year to accept her Nobel Prize and has vowed to return to assist with the response to devastating earthquakes that occurred in June, a plan that U.S. officials believe is ill-timed.
President Donald Trump has denied reports that his administration advised Machado against returning to Venezuela. U.S. officials have stated that Machado, who has been publicly sidelined by Washington since the removal of Nicolas Maduro, lacks sufficient support to lead the country.
Sources indicate that Machado was unaware the talks were scheduled until shortly before Figuera's visit to Caracas in mid-June. Another source stated Machado was informed about the discussions but not invited to join the opposition delegation due to her not being a member of the 2015 assembly.
"Machado is right to distance herself from this process," said an individual familiar with the negotiations. "If the negotiations go well and lead to free elections, she will become Venezuela’s first female president. If the negotiations go badly, she will have proven her point: that negotiations need representatives who have legitimacy and who are accepted and viewed positively by the public."
The negotiators face pressure to produce swift results to build confidence among Venezuelans and to compensate for Machado's absence. Machado recently stated that while she would not participate, she would not obstruct "real progress" at the talks and would assess their success based on the restoration of democratic institutions, the release of political prisoners, and the scheduling of elections.
The interim government aims to push for the lifting of remaining U.S. sanctions during the talks. The U.S. has previously eased sanctions on Venezuela's oil, gas, and gold sectors in response to agreements between the government and the opposition concerning fair elections.
Venezuela's opposition has engaged in multiple rounds of talks with the Maduro government over the years, which has appointed its allies to top judicial and electoral positions. A previous agreement for 2024 elections promised a fair contest and full opposition participation, but Machado was barred from running. Despite U.S. and international observers suggesting her movement secured roughly two-thirds of the votes, electoral and judicial authorities declared Maduro the winner.
Ricardo Rios, head of the Poder y Estrategia political risk consultancy, noted that Machado's faction's absence from the upcoming talks effectively excludes a significant segment of the country. However, he added that Venezuela's opposition has long been divided, making further fractures unlikely.
The United States has stated that Venezuela must achieve stability and economic recovery before elections can occur. President Trump has eased some sanctions and has praised interim President Rodriguez's leadership.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Machado is welcome to participate if the Venezuelan people support her presence, emphasizing that the U.S. role is to facilitate, not dictate, the negotiations. "In order for Venezuela to have the reconciliation that that country requires to move forward on all these other projects, every element of Venezuelan society needs to be represented. And obviously, Maria Corina represents an important element of that," Rubio said.
One opposition source close to Figuera's group described the U.S. as a "central player" in the talks, indicating they would not remain passive. The U.S. involvement is seen as providing security for opposition members and leaders who have frequently faced detention and prosecution on charges they contend are politically motivated.