Meaningful negotiations between the United States and Iran remain stalled, with both sides digging in on their demands despite calls for renewed peace talks. The conflict, which began on February 28, has now entered its seventh month with no clear end in sight.
Recent hostilities have seen oil tankers targeted in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which approximately one-fifth of global oil production flowed before the war. The disruption has sent oil prices soaring, with crude reaching over $100 a barrel for the first time since July. This instability has been exacerbated by the advances of Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels, who have captured strategic locations in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another critical maritime route. Experts suggest these Houthi actions provide Iran with leverage in its conflict with the U.S., complicating alternative shipping routes.
President Donald Trump recently stated that the U.S. is "open" to restarting negotiations with Tehran, a sentiment he expressed on Monday. "The failing nation of Iran wants to make a deal, quickly and badly," Trump claimed. "I will determine whether or not the U.S.A. will choose to engage—the concept of which we are open to." This marks a shift from his earlier stance on September 2, when he stated he was "not trying to force" Iran to the bargaining table and expressed confidence that the war would end "immediately after" the November midterms.
However, Ali Vaez, deputy program director for the Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group, cautioned that the success of future negotiations hinges on Trump's diplomatic approach. "If it's maximalist, then it doesn't stand a chance of succeeding," Vaez said, emphasizing the need for "multi-dimensional diplomacy" to achieve sustainable de-escalation.
Iran, however, has reiterated its firm stance, with Mohsen Rezaei, Iran's recently-installed secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, stating on Monday, "No talks until Iran’s conditions are met. Period!" While specific conditions were not detailed, Iran had previously outlined six demands for the U.S. to meet before the Strait of Hormuz could be fully reopened. Rezaei also suggested that the regional dynamics have shifted, warning that "damage control won’t stop what’s coming."
This hard-line position contrasts with remarks made earlier in September by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who indicated Tehran was prepared to "reciprocate" if the U.S. returned to the cease-fire conditions negotiated in June. These conditions were outlined in a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed on June 17, but the agreement subsequently faltered due to differing interpretations.
Farea Al-Muslimi, a research fellow at Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa program, suggests that Iran's current demands are intended to prolong negotiations while energy prices continue to rise. "They can wait. They can afford it," Al-Muslimi stated, noting that Iran is less constrained by public opinion and democratic processes.
The Houthis' actions in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have significant implications. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase in crude oil and petroleum liquids transiting this route. While the Houthis have stated they will not disrupt maritime traffic except for Saudi Arabian oil tankers, their demonstrated ability to threaten shipping is seen by experts as a valuable card for Tehran in negotiations.
"The Houthis march to the beat of their own drummer, but these actions certainly help Iran gain leverage by complicating alternative routes out of the Strait of Hormuz," said Daniel Benaim, a former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the Arabian Peninsula. Al-Muslimi agreed, stating, "the Iranians now have a new card they can use, and they haven't totally used [it] yet, but they will. It's a matter of time."
Disruptions at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the gateway to the Suez Canal, could force shipping companies to reroute around South Africa's Cape of Good Hope. This alternative route adds approximately 15 days to voyages and increases insurance and travel costs, particularly impacting Asian countries that are major importers of Saudi crude oil. The Suez Canal itself also presents limitations for large crude carriers, requiring partial unloading of cargo to transit.