US and China Make Uneven Progress on Trade Commitments Ahead of Xi's Washington Visit

The United States and China have experienced mixed results in fulfilling trade commitments established during the May meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. As the two leaders convene in Washington this week, the central question is whether their second summit of the year can energize their administrations to advance agreements on a range of issues, from agricultural and aircraft exports to artificial intelligence.

Analysts anticipate modest progress during Xi's visit, which commences Wednesday, but do not foresee significant breakthroughs. Sara Schuman, a former senior U.S. negotiator for China trade, suggested that the primary outcome of the trip would be its occurrence and the accompanying symbolism.

Following their May meeting, the two nations agreed upon a framework for "constructive strategic stability" aimed at preventing disagreements from escalating and identifying areas for cooperation despite fundamental differences. Much of the anticipation for this week's discussions centers on the potential launch of a Board of Trade and reciprocal tariff reductions on $30 billion worth of goods from each country, both of which were agreed upon in May.

A Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesperson indicated earlier this month that both sides aim to implement tariff reductions promptly. Experts foresee an announcement, though some anticipate it may not reach the full $30 billion target. Discussions are reportedly focused on approximately 10 product categories, with disagreements on the initiative's scope, according to analysts from the World Economic Forum. The tariff cuts are expected to apply to non-sensitive items, such as toys and holiday decorations from China, and potentially agricultural exports from the U.S. Schuman noted that President Trump likely seeks to demonstrate the effectiveness of his approach to voters shortly before the November midterm elections.

The White House announced in May that China had committed to purchasing at least $17 billion annually in American agricultural products, in addition to a prior pledge to buy 25 million metric tons of soybeans per year. This would bring China's total yearly farm purchases from the U.S. to roughly $30 billion, according to Luke Lindberg, the U.S. undersecretary of agriculture for trade. However, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's forecast for the current 12-month period estimates Chinese imports of American farm goods at $21.5 billion.

In May, the two sides also agreed to work on reducing barriers for Chinese exports such as dairy, seafood, and bonsai, and for U.S. exports of beef and poultry. China has re-registered American beef plants, but technical issues at Chinese ports are still being addressed to clear U.S. shipments, according to Joe Schuele of the U.S. Meat Export Federation.

China's commitment to purchase 200 Boeing planes, made in May, has not yet materialized. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg stated last week that Chinese airlines would announce orders according to their own schedules, expressing confidence in future orders. Concerns regarding access to aircraft parts have been raised by the Chinese side, according to Craig Allen of the Asia Society Policy Institute.

Initial agreements on establishing a dialogue for artificial intelligence saw little action until recent activity spurred by industry concerns about AI misuse. While both nations share apprehensions regarding AI risks, their competitive relationship hinders cooperation, according to Alvin Graylin, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute. Ja Ian Chong, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore, observed that neither country sees much benefit in collaborating where a competitive advantage is perceived as crucial.

A less ambitious step could involve establishing a channel for crisis communications. Schuman emphasized the importance of clear communication lines given the low trust between the two countries.

The agreement to form a Board of Investment, also announced in May, has proven more challenging than the trade agreement. While Trump supports new factories in the U.S., Chinese investment faces scrutiny from Congress due to security and strategic concerns amidst U.S.-China competition. China, in turn, is cautious about exporting its technology to the U.S. and about investing in the country, according to Kurt Tong, a former U.S. diplomat. Tong noted that these levels of suspicion may limit the potential for relationship improvements.