US and China Extend Trade Truce, Bessent Details Iran Conflict Scenarios

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced Wednesday that the United States and China have agreed to extend their bilateral trade truce, known as the "Busan agreement," until January 10. This extension provides additional time to address economic matters between the two nations.

Bessent made the announcement on Fox News, stating, "We have agreed today that we will extend what we call the Busan agreement, the economic detente between the two countries that was scheduled to end on Nov. 10 that is going to be extended until Jan. 10 to give us more time to see what we can do on the economic front."

The Treasury Department has been implementing a comprehensive economic pressure campaign against Iran, targeting its assets and financial networks. Bessent described this effort as "an effort never seen before in terms of constricting and cutting off the financial oxygen to them."

Bessent also outlined three potential scenarios for the conclusion of the conflict with Iran, characterizing the regime as a "cornered animal." These possibilities include internal regime conflict, an uprising by the Iranian people, or Tehran engaging in and adhering to a negotiated agreement. "One, the regime turns on each other — not impossible," he told Fox News. "Two, we get some kind of uprising for the Iranian people. They've probably killed 50,000 of their own population, so very difficult. And then three, to get the Iranians to, if they want to make a deal, to stick to the deal."

The Treasury launched Operation Economic Outcast in August, an initiative aimed at further isolating Iran from the global financial system and severing its financial lifelines. Bessent warned that entities supporting Iran would face consequences, stating, "We have made it very clear around the world, whether it's the financiers, the people who are doing business, the people who are supplying the Iranians, we know who you are, you know who you are, and we are going to prosecute and execute your companies and your bank accounts every day and every week."

Regarding travel, Bessent expressed uncertainty about how Iranian representatives attending the United Nations General Assembly would return home, citing restrictions imposed on Iranian airlines. "External flights from Iran, probably more than 80 or 90% of them, got shut down. I'm not sure how the Iranian representatives at the UN are gonna get home," he said.

In addition to these matters, Bessent addressed his recent talks with China's Vice Premier He Lifeng. He proposed an AI "notification mechanism" between the U.S. and China to alert each other about AI-related safety incidents that could pose national security risks. "They're very eager to engage with us on AI because… the U.S. is substantially in the lead, China's behind us," Bessent noted. He emphasized the importance of engaging with China on AI, particularly concerning perilous risk factors such as uncontrolled AI agents or the use of AI by non-state actors for cyber operations or biological threats.