Union Warns of 'Existential Risk' to Probation Service Amid Early Release Scheme

The National Association of Probation Officers (Napo) has warned that the government's early release scheme for prisoners poses an 'existential risk' to the probation service, urging ministers to place the entire service under special measures. Ben Cockburn, chair of Napo, stated that the government's promise to maintain public safety while releasing thousands of inmates is "just not credible."

More than 700 offenders were released on Thursday as part of an effort to alleviate pressure on overcrowded prisons. Under the early release program, over 4,500 inmates, including those convicted of violent crimes, are eligible for release over the next ten months. Cockburn expressed concern that the probation service is being used as a "dumping ground for the prison capacity crisis," highlighting that the service is already severely understaffed and struggling to manage the current demand.

Napo has repeatedly requested that ministers put the probation service under special measures until at least April 2027. Cockburn believes this would allow staff to prioritize high-risk offenders, although he acknowledged that it might imply the system is in crisis. He argued that the emergency measures would enable staff to "focus on the most risky, most dangerous" offenders, effectively deprioritizing others. "This is a once in a generational change in terms of how we do things," Cockburn said. "They're expecting everybody to be doing the same level of service and that's just not credible. That's not possible."

Ministers maintain that measures are in place to ensure public safety. Justice Secretary Alex Norris has promoted the "biggest expansion of tagging ever" and new "restriction zones" using GPS tracking. However, a previous report indicated that nearly half of electronic tags are not fitted on time, leading to breaches of court and prison orders. Cockburn pointed out that even when tags are fitted, they do not automatically guarantee public safety, as alerts are often received the day after a violation during non-office hours, and real-time tracking is only in very small-scale pilot stages.

Furthermore, around 20 percent of released offenders lack accommodation, making them ineligible for tagging. Cockburn stated that the government's claims do not reflect the current reality, adding that "patience and goodwill have been completely vaporised over the last few years." He expressed a "genuine fear in terms of an existential risk to the probation service as it currently stands."

Martin Jones, the chief inspector of probation for England and Wales, has previously stated that the early release of prisoners could lead to serious sexual or violent offenses, or even murder, due to the increased demands on probation staff.

A Ministry of Justice spokesman asserted that public safety is the priority and highlighted investments in probation services, recruitment of trainee officers, and the expansion of tagging. "The evidence is clear that tagging works, acting as a constant reminder to offenders that we are watching their every move and will know if they reoffend," the spokesman said. The ministry also stated that efforts are underway to address homelessness among prison leavers to ensure tagging is appropriate where needed.