ABC News is implementing a new Voter Poll for the upcoming election, designed to offer deeper insights into who won, why they won, and the key issues that influenced voters. This poll will also examine voting patterns among different demographic groups.
The Voter Poll, managed by SSRS, will expand its reach to include every state with a Senate or governor's race, totaling 45 states. A National Voter Poll will also be conducted with a larger sample size than in previous years.
Conducting the Voter Poll
The poll begins by contacting likely voters before Election Day through various methods, including online surveys, mailed postcards, text messages, emails, and phone calls. Those who have not yet voted are recontacted starting the day before Election Day and continuing through poll closing in each state on Election Day. These follow-ups confirm if the respondent has voted, how they voted, and their final choices.
Additionally, traditional exit polls conducted at randomly selected precincts will be integrated into the Voter Poll data. Voters leaving these polling places will be approached to complete a short, confidential questionnaire. The data from all these contact methods are combined and weighted to create a comprehensive view of the electorate.
Voter Poll Questionnaire
The survey asks participants about their candidate choice, demographics, opinions on candidates, and key issues such as the economy, foreign policy, healthcare, immigration, crime, and education. For example, a past question asked: "Do you think the condition of the nation's economy is: Excellent, Good, Not so good, or Poor?"
Accuracy and Reporting
Like all surveys, the Voter Poll is subject to sampling and nonsampling errors. Before releasing results or making projections, ABC News conducts rigorous quality control checks, comparing the data against pre-election polls and historical voting patterns. Statisticians and political experts also review the data. After polls close, the results are weighted using actual vote data to enhance accuracy.
While Voter Polls can be used to project winners in races with a clear margin, most projections rely on actual vote counts. Initial demographic and issue-related data from the early waves of the Voter Poll will be embargoed until 5 p.m. ET on Election Day, with preliminary information available on ABCNews.com by approximately 5:45 p.m. ET. Complete crosstabs will be posted on ABCNews.com after polls close in each state. ABC News will not project a winner until the last scheduled poll closing time in each state, and projections will be updated throughout the evening based on available vote data.